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Category: inflation expectations

No Question, the Monetary Policy (Interest Rate) Narrative Has Changed (For the Better)

June 25, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adhered to the Fed’s stated policy of “slower economic growth with expected higher inflation” yesterday…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Federal Reserve, inflation, inflation expectations, interest rates

SP 500 Earnings: Are the Tariffs Fully Discounted and May ’25 Core CPI This Coming Week

June 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The SP 500 closed at 6,000.36 on Friday, June 6th, 2025. It’s low on April 7th, 2025 was 4,835.04. Despite…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CPI / PPI, inflation, inflation expectations, Weekly Earnings Update

Inflation Expectations vs. 10-year Treasury Yield – the (2nd) Great Conundrum

May 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The first Great Conundrum was in the early 2000’s after the 2001 – 2002 50% bear market in the SP…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Great Rcecession (2008), inflation expectations

SP 500 Earnings: CPI Print Wednesday, Walmart Earnings Thursday, and Don’t Forget Inflation Expectations

August 10, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The big economic print this week will be Wednesday’s July CPI and Core CPI, which along with Thursday’s July Retail…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CPI / PPI, CPI Services ex-Shelter, inflation, inflation expectations, Weekly Earnings Update

2024 Forecast: Done a Little Differently

December 26, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Last year at this time, this blog thought that 2023 would be a better year, with a prediction of positive…

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Posted in: 2024 Stock and Bond Market Forecast, AGG, inflation expectations, International (Non-US), TLT

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Fundamentalis

  • SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 EPS Growth for 2025 Has Risen from 8% to 10% since Late June
  • Walmart Post-Earnings: Noisy Quarter, but Operationally, Walmart is Fine
  • Walmart Earnings Preview: Tariffs, Trade Policy Have Complicated Picture; Focus on the Operating Margin
  • Cisco is Fine Post Earnings: Cisco and IBM Might be the “Anti-AI” Tech Stocks
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Stock Price Nearing It’s April, 2000, All-Time-High

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