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Category: inflation expectations

No Question, the Monetary Policy (Interest Rate) Narrative Has Changed (For the Better)

June 25, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adhered to the Fed’s stated policy of “slower economic growth with expected higher inflation” yesterday…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Federal Reserve, inflation, inflation expectations, interest rates

SP 500 Earnings: Are the Tariffs Fully Discounted and May ’25 Core CPI This Coming Week

June 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The SP 500 closed at 6,000.36 on Friday, June 6th, 2025. It’s low on April 7th, 2025 was 4,835.04. Despite…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CPI / PPI, inflation, inflation expectations, Weekly Earnings Update

Inflation Expectations vs. 10-year Treasury Yield – the (2nd) Great Conundrum

May 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The first Great Conundrum was in the early 2000’s after the 2001 – 2002 50% bear market in the SP…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Great Rcecession (2008), inflation expectations

SP 500 Earnings: CPI Print Wednesday, Walmart Earnings Thursday, and Don’t Forget Inflation Expectations

August 10, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The big economic print this week will be Wednesday’s July CPI and Core CPI, which along with Thursday’s July Retail…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CPI / PPI, CPI Services ex-Shelter, inflation, inflation expectations, Weekly Earnings Update

2024 Forecast: Done a Little Differently

December 26, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Last year at this time, this blog thought that 2023 would be a better year, with a prediction of positive…

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Posted in: 2024 Stock and Bond Market Forecast, AGG, inflation expectations, International (Non-US), TLT

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Fundamentalis

  • Style-Box Update: Growth Still Leading Value Across Market-Caps: Zeroing in on Mid-Caps
  • SP 500 Earnings Update: The 10-year-and-Under Treasury Maturities Are Now All Below the Fed Funds Rate
  • No Question, the Monetary Policy (Interest Rate) Narrative Has Changed (For the Better)
  • Nike Earnings Preview: Some Improvement is Expected; The 7% Free-Cash-Flow Yield Helps
  • SP 500 Earnings Update: Q2 ’25 Earnings Should be Ok; The Attention Turns to Q3 ’25 Guidance

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