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Category: Federal Reserve

No Question, the Monetary Policy (Interest Rate) Narrative Has Changed (For the Better)

June 25, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adhered to the Fed’s stated policy of “slower economic growth with expected higher inflation” yesterday…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Federal Reserve, inflation, inflation expectations, interest rates

The Coming Week: FOMC Statement, Lots of Labor Market Data, and More SP 500 Earnings Data

July 28, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

It’s a busy week for economic data, both monthly and quarterly, as well as the all-important FOMC statement on monetary…

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Posted in: CME fed funds futures, Federal Reserve, Monthly payroll report

It’s Still All About Interest Rates and the US Economic Data

October 1, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Anytime during the trading day the last few weeks, when the 10-year Treasury yield moved to multi-year highs, the dollar…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CME fed funds futures, Federal Reserve, Municipal Bond market

Inflation Still Better than Deflation / Jackson Hole in 2023

August 24, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

With Jay Powell set to release annual statement around the 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday morning, August 25th,…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Ben Bernanke, Bond Market(s), Federal Reserve

Fundamentalis

  • Yield Curve Steepened Last Week, While the US Equity Indices Became Very Overbought
  • SP 500 Earnings: 2026 Expected SP 500 EPS Hasn’t Wavered Much from Expected 14% Growth Rate
  • SP 500 Earnings: Continued Upward Pressure on Forward SP 500 Estimates
  • Bond / Fixed-Income Returns Having a Good Year (so far) in 2025
  • SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 EPS Growth for 2025 Has Risen from 8% to 10% since Late June

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