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Inflation Expectations vs. 10-year Treasury Yield – the (2nd) Great Conundrum

May 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The first Great Conundrum was in the early 2000’s after the 2001 – 2002 50% bear market in the SP…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Great Rcecession (2008), inflation expectations

Fixed-Income Annual Returns and Falling Crude Oil Prices

May 5, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Crude oil was down 4% Sunday night, as OPEC once again announced a production increase of 411,000 bpd (barrels per…

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Posted in: Bond Market(s), Bond Market(s) annual return, Credit markets

International Returns Starting to Shine, But Probably Not Like March, 2000 through 2007

May 4, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The above asset-class return quilt was posted to X late last week by FinGenAI (@ackmeni), and is originally sourced from…

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Posted in: GLD, Gold, International (Non-US), International Equity (JFEAX)

Big Jump in Q1 ’25 SP 500 EPS: “Upside Surprise” for Q1 ’25 is +7%

May 2, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Source: LSEG Earnings Scorecard This table shows the sharp jump in just the last week in the Q1 ’25 SP…

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Posted in: Weekly Earnings Update

SP 500 Earnings: Updating Q2 ’25 EPS Trends / Q1 ’25 Earnings Look Great

April 25, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The above chart shows that the “expected” SP 500 EPS growth by sector has lost about 600 bp’s or 6%…

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Posted in: Weekly Earnings Update

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Fundamentalis

  • Inflation Expectations vs. 10-year Treasury Yield – the (2nd) Great Conundrum
  • Fixed-Income Annual Returns and Falling Crude Oil Prices
  • International Returns Starting to Shine, But Probably Not Like March, 2000 through 2007
  • Big Jump in Q1 ’25 SP 500 EPS: “Upside Surprise” for Q1 ’25 is +7%
  • SP 500 Earnings: Updating Q2 ’25 EPS Trends / Q1 ’25 Earnings Look Great

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