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Expecting Modest, but Still Likely Positive Return, for the SP 500 in 2026

December 28, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Last year at this time, this blog was expecting a similar modest return, and that forecast was exceeded nicely by…

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Posted in: 2026 expected stock and bond mkt returns, 60/40 portfolio

Gold Breaks a 40-year Correlation. Does This Signal a Problem for SP 500 Forward Returns ?

December 25, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

It’s difficult not to look at this Trendspider chart and not be be bullish gold, silver and platinum. Although this…

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Posted in: Gold, SP 500 annual return

The 2025 Estimated SP 500 EPS Growth Rate has Improved from +9% in July, ’25 to +14% on Dec 12 ’25

December 14, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

Rather than bury the lede, the title tells readers the surprise received this weekend, after updating SP 500 EPS estimate…

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Posted in: QQQ, SP 500 chart, TrendSpider, Weekly Earnings Update

Nike Earnings Preview: Expect a Better Quarter, But Elliott’s Still Running a Marathon with a Piano on His Back

December 12, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

When Nike reports their fiscal Q2 ’26 financial results after the bell on Thursday, December 18, 2025, consensus is expecting…

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Posted in: NKE

Fed Funds Cut Coming Wednesday, December 10th / Longer-Maturity Move Likely to Happen w Fed Chair Change

December 8, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

(H/t Mike Zaccardi) Table from Bank of America showing the change in 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields dating back to…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Ben Bernanke, Bond Market(s), Bond Market(s) annual return, Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting

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Fundamentalis

  • It’s a New Year, and At Least So Far, a New Stock Market
  • SP 500 Earnings: Tech Sector Revisions Still Robustly Positive
  • SP 500 Earnings: Financials Report This Week – Expectations Are Quite High and Compares Are Tough
  • Style-Box Update: Small-Cap Value Outperforming Small-Cap Growth – Hasn’t Happened since 2022
  • A Quick Look at Q4 ’25 EPS and Revenue for SP 500: Tech Sector EPS Grew 30.9% in Q3 ’25

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