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Probability Grows for Below-Average Returns in 2026

December 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The SP 500 could return 5% – 7% in 2026, and while it would feel like a significant change, the…

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Posted in: Gina Martin Adams, Kobeissi Letter, PE expansion / contraction

SP 500 Earnings: Forward SP 500 Estimates Still Rising – Oracle Reports This Week

December 6, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

There is still little change in the trend in forward SP 500 estimate revisions the last few weeks. This blog…

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Posted in: ORCL, SP 500 Earnings Yield, SP 500 EPS "rate-of-change", Weekly Earnings Update

International Equity Annual Returns: Non-Correlated to the US Returns and Don’t Forget Japan

December 4, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

(h/t Mike Zaccardi on X) Per this bar chart, European equity is having it’s best year vs US since 2006.…

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Posted in: EWJ - iShares Japan ETF, International (Non-US), International Equity (JFEAX), Japan and Nikkei

Annual Fixed Income Returns: Emerging Markets Lead, Muni’s Lag

December 2, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

Here’s a quick look at annual returns across the fixed-income classes as of 11/30/25, with emerging markets income leading the…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, annual return, Bond Market(s), TLT

Aiming for 4th Year in a Row of Double-Digit SP 500 Returns: Buyer Beware

December 1, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Listening to these firms announce their SP 500 price targets for 2026, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that the…

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Posted in: SP 500 forecast(s), SP 500 Historical Framework, SP 500 long-term returns

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Fundamentalis

  • It’s a New Year, and At Least So Far, a New Stock Market
  • SP 500 Earnings: Tech Sector Revisions Still Robustly Positive
  • SP 500 Earnings: Financials Report This Week – Expectations Are Quite High and Compares Are Tough
  • Style-Box Update: Small-Cap Value Outperforming Small-Cap Growth – Hasn’t Happened since 2022
  • A Quick Look at Q4 ’25 EPS and Revenue for SP 500: Tech Sector EPS Grew 30.9% in Q3 ’25

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