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Fed Funds Cut Coming Wednesday, December 10th / Longer-Maturity Move Likely to Happen w Fed Chair Change

December 8, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

(H/t Mike Zaccardi) Table from Bank of America showing the change in 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields dating back to…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Ben Bernanke, Bond Market(s), Bond Market(s) annual return, Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting

Probability Grows for Below-Average Returns in 2026

December 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The SP 500 could return 5% – 7% in 2026, and while it would feel like a significant change, the…

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Posted in: Gina Martin Adams, Kobeissi Letter, PE expansion / contraction

SP 500 Earnings: Forward SP 500 Estimates Still Rising – Oracle Reports This Week

December 6, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

There is still little change in the trend in forward SP 500 estimate revisions the last few weeks. This blog…

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Posted in: ORCL, SP 500 Earnings Yield, SP 500 EPS "rate-of-change", Weekly Earnings Update

International Equity Annual Returns: Non-Correlated to the US Returns and Don’t Forget Japan

December 4, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

(h/t Mike Zaccardi on X) Per this bar chart, European equity is having it’s best year vs US since 2006.…

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Posted in: EWJ - iShares Japan ETF, International (Non-US), International Equity (JFEAX), Japan and Nikkei

Annual Fixed Income Returns: Emerging Markets Lead, Muni’s Lag

December 2, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

Here’s a quick look at annual returns across the fixed-income classes as of 11/30/25, with emerging markets income leading the…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, annual return, Bond Market(s), TLT

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Fundamentalis

  • SP 500 Earnings: Jump in SP 500 EPS This Week. Japan Election This Weekend
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  • SP 500 Earnings: 7,000 Tough Resistance for SP 500
  • IBM Earnings Preview: IBM’s Operating Margin is Slowly Expanding
  • Boeing Earnings Preview: Expectations Remain Too Subdued for the Aerospace Giant

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