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Trump ’16-’17 vs. Trump’24 -’25: The Stock Market “Math” Still Looks Tough

December 1, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Barrons (www.barrons.com) had a good article (subscription may be required) on the prospects for 2025 stock market returns this weekend,…

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Posted in: 2025 expected stock and bond market returns

SP 500 Earnings Update: Big Week for Labor Market Data / Treasuries Rallied Sharply Last week

November 30, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The following table from Briefing.com lists the scheduled economic data releases for December 2nd through December 6th, and like the…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Labor Market Data, Monthly payroll report

SP 500 Earnings Data Won’t Call a Market Top

November 24, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Having written a weekend blog post on trends in SP 500 earnings data for the last 20 years, it’s important…

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Posted in: Weekly Earnings Update

Walmart Earnings Summary: The “Flywheel” Levers are Beginning to Turn

November 21, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Walmart reported their fiscal Q3 ’25 financial results Tuesday morning, November 19th, ’24, and if the quarter could be summarized…

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Posted in: WMT

Annual Bond Market Returns: Jay Powell Would Probably Like to Return to a Positively-Sloped Yield Curve

November 17, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Here’s the annual returns for the various bond asset classes as of 10/31/24: The surprising metric as of 10/31/24, was…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, 60/40 portfolio, Bond Market(s), Bond Market(s) annual return

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Fundamentalis

  • Expecting Modest, but Still Likely Positive Return, for the SP 500 in 2026
  • Gold Breaks a 40-year Correlation. Does This Signal a Problem for SP 500 Forward Returns ?
  • The 2025 Estimated SP 500 EPS Growth Rate has Improved from +9% in July, ’25 to +14% on Dec 12 ’25
  • Nike Earnings Preview: Expect a Better Quarter, But Elliott’s Still Running a Marathon with a Piano on His Back
  • Fed Funds Cut Coming Wednesday, December 10th / Longer-Maturity Move Likely to Happen w Fed Chair Change

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