There is a whole generation of investors that think that bonds and bond funds, and bond ETF’s are “safe”, i.e. low risk of loss, modest returns, etc. And that has been true for a while. In the late 1990’s, the … Continued
Readers will kept abreast of sector changes and such over the next 6 weeks of the quarter, but really all eyes should be on 2017 SP 500 earnings estimates and the potential impact from not just personal tax rate reductions, … Continued
Jeff Gundlach, the “new” media-appointed Bond King in the last year, (and Jeff has made some good calls) who runs his own bond firm, DoubleLine Capital, was on CNBC yesterday (11/11/16) and weighed in on all things political, economic and … Continued
Doug Kass, the famed author of “The Edge” column at Jim Cramer’s Street.com, and a noted bear who gave the bearish perspective on Berkshire-Hathaway the stock (BRKB), to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a few years ago at Berkshire’s Omaha … Continued
“Sometimes it is good to have reminders of the mistakes you’ve made.” Brian Bosworth, “The Boz”, ESPN’s 30-for-30 —————————————————————————————— If there is one trade that I haven’t done a good job for clients with off the ’09 low, it has … Continued
After last Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (FOMC) announcement, the aspect that most impressed me about Janet Yellen’s comments was how “dovish” her commentary was, revising down GDP estimates, making moderate comments about inflation and growth, and in general sounding quite “bond … Continued
While contemplating a couple of different blog posts today, Gary Morrow’s post from This Week on Wall Street (TWOWS), pretty much made the decision, as to what to write about tonight. Gary and I know each other from our days … Continued
We had another ugly day in Treasuries today, Wednesday, May 6th, 2015. Here are the recent returns for the IEF (first column) and TLT (second column), the iShares Barclay’s Treasury ETF’s: 1-month:-2.19%, -7.71% YTD: +0.53%, -3.61% 1-year: +5.41%. +10.47% 3-year:+5.66%. … Continued
1.) Short, sharp, corrections, usually 5% – 7% in severity. The last big correction bottomed last October ’14 and it was roughly 7.7% peak-to-trough, and it seemed pretty nasty. The last 20% SP 500 correction was 2011’s recession scare (so … Continued
Our two “top-down” trades that have gone wrong in 2014, have been the yield curve flattening, where we thought rates would continue to move higher into 2014, and the retail / consumer discretionary trade, which we thought would end with … Continued