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Category: PE expansion / contraction

Probability Grows for Below-Average Returns in 2026

December 7, 2025 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

The SP 500 could return 5% – 7% in 2026, and while it would feel like a significant change, the…

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Posted in: Gina Martin Adams, Kobeissi Letter, PE expansion / contraction

PE Contraction in ’25 Might Matter More, Ed Yardeni, Worry When the 10-year Treasury Yield hits 5%, Expect a Bumpier ’25

December 28, 2024 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

Ed Yardeni was featured on CNBC’s Morning “Squawk Box” with Brian Sullivan and Sara Eisen on Friday, December 27th, 2024,…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, 2025 expected stock and bond market returns, PE expansion / contraction, Weekly Earnings Update

SP 500 Earnings: So Far, the Pattern is Typical, But Mega-cap Earnings This Week Loom Large

April 20, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

In this “Market Cap vs Earnings Weight” post from March 28th, ’24, the dynamic between the two “weights” was discussed…

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Posted in: 2000, PE expansion / contraction, Weekly Earnings Update

SP 500: Annual Return vs Annual Earnings Growth

December 22, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Source: internal spreadsheet The above is a spreadsheet listing dating back to the early 1990’s, showing annual SP 500 earnings…

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Posted in: PE expansion / contraction

SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 Forward Estimates Still Improving, as Higher Rates Stifle Multiple Expansion

September 2, 2023 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Briefing.com’s economic release calendar for the coming week is quieter than last week’s calendar. The Services PMI still matters given…

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Posted in: 1994, HYG, PE expansion / contraction, WMT

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Fundamentalis

  • Expecting Modest, but Still Likely Positive Return, for the SP 500 in 2026
  • Gold Breaks a 40-year Correlation. Does This Signal a Problem for SP 500 Forward Returns ?
  • The 2025 Estimated SP 500 EPS Growth Rate has Improved from +9% in July, ’25 to +14% on Dec 12 ’25
  • Nike Earnings Preview: Expect a Better Quarter, But Elliott’s Still Running a Marathon with a Piano on His Back
  • Fed Funds Cut Coming Wednesday, December 10th / Longer-Maturity Move Likely to Happen w Fed Chair Change

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