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Insightful market commentary from a fresh perspective.
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More Jobs Data This Coming Week: Nothing to Suggest a Change in Trend is Afoot

January 4, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Since the forecasts were so inaccurate in 2022, through 2023, you rarely hear any kind of recession talk these days,…

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Posted in: Monthly payroll report

SP 500 Earnings Update: Q3 ’24 Earnings Were Solid; Q4 ’24 Looks Even Stronger

January 3, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Just a quick comment on Friday, January 3rd, ’25’s market action: semi’s actually saw some good volume, with Nvidia (NVDA)…

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Posted in: Weekly Earnings Update

Semiconductors Looking Wobbly: Micron Estimate Revisions Sharply Negative Post Earnings

January 1, 2025 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Bespoke put out a note on New Years Eve talking about the lousy action in semiconductors and the SMH (semiconductor…

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Posted in: MSFT, mu, SMH (semiconductor ETF)

Grim Decade for Bonds, but High-Yield Credit Wins in 2024

December 29, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Here’s a decade-to-date total return chart for both the AGG ETF, and the Barclay’s US benchmark index courtesy of YCharts.…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, AGG, BASIX (Blackrock Income Fund), Corporate High Yield, Corporate HighGrade Bonds, High-Yield Credit, HYG, JMSIX (JPMorgan Income Fund), Treasuries

PE Contraction in ’25 Might Matter More, Ed Yardeni, Worry When the 10-year Treasury Yield hits 5%, Expect a Bumpier ’25

December 28, 2024 Brian Gilmartin 2 Comments

Ed Yardeni was featured on CNBC’s Morning “Squawk Box” with Brian Sullivan and Sara Eisen on Friday, December 27th, 2024,…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, 2025 expected stock and bond market returns, PE expansion / contraction, Weekly Earnings Update

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Fundamentalis

  • Inflation Expectations vs. 10-year Treasury Yield – the (2nd) Great Conundrum
  • Fixed-Income Annual Returns and Falling Crude Oil Prices
  • International Returns Starting to Shine, But Probably Not Like March, 2000 through 2007
  • Big Jump in Q1 ’25 SP 500 EPS: “Upside Surprise” for Q1 ’25 is +7%
  • SP 500 Earnings: Updating Q2 ’25 EPS Trends / Q1 ’25 Earnings Look Great

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