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Author: Brian Gilmartin

SP 500 Earnings: Strong Week for SP 500. Don’t Discount Currency Issues Too Lightly.

August 17, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The SP 500 rose 4.50% last week, but the YTD return of 17.85% as of Friday, August 19th, ’24 is…

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Posted in: Bond Market(s) annual return, Weekly Earnings Update, Yen

Walmart Earnings Preview: E-Commerce and New Biz Ventures Could be More Lucrative Than Thought

August 11, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The one thing about Walmart if you’ve followed them over the years (and this blog has modeled the financials since…

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Posted in: Amazon, Consumer Staples, Costco (COST), WMT

SP 500 Earnings: CPI Print Wednesday, Walmart Earnings Thursday, and Don’t Forget Inflation Expectations

August 10, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The big economic print this week will be Wednesday’s July CPI and Core CPI, which along with Thursday’s July Retail…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, CPI / PPI, CPI Services ex-Shelter, inflation, inflation expectations, Weekly Earnings Update

Jobless Claims and Credit Spreads – An Update

August 7, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

While I thought last week’s jobless claims number of +255,000 was the highest print in the last year (and was…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Corporate High Yield, Corporate HighGrade Bonds, Credit markets, jobless claims

SP 500 Earnings: Watch Credit Spreads to Gauge Recession Risk

August 2, 2024 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

With large-cap or mega-cap technology earnings pretty much over with this week, (Nvidia reports late August ’24, and then Oracle…

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Posted in: 10-year Treasury yield, Credit markets, High-Yield Credit, HYG

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Fundamentalis

  • Yield Curve Steepened Last Week, While the US Equity Indices Became Very Overbought
  • SP 500 Earnings: 2026 Expected SP 500 EPS Hasn’t Wavered Much from Expected 14% Growth Rate
  • SP 500 Earnings: Continued Upward Pressure on Forward SP 500 Estimates
  • Bond / Fixed-Income Returns Having a Good Year (so far) in 2025
  • SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 EPS Growth for 2025 Has Risen from 8% to 10% since Late June

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