Take any forecast or expected return discussion for 2019 with a substantial grain of salt. In 2017, this blog’s forecast for the SP 500 was pretty solid, looking for a 20% year where, in fact, the SP 500 returned 21.5% … Continued
Always grateful when the thoughtful and measured Jeff Miller, the author of one of Seeking Alpha’s more popular weekly columns, “Weighing the Week Ahead” mentions this blog in the weekly market recap. Jeff writes a very thorough piece – that … Continued
While big banks kick off the Q3 ’17 earnings season this week, readers can get a leg up by looking at Q4 ’17 estimates and seeing which sectors have seen the highest earnings revisions since July 1, ’17. Per Thomson … Continued
Here was the 2016 forecast, calling for 10% and while it looked pretty remote the first 2 months of 2016, the forecast paid off. Here was the 2015 forecast, made in December, ’14 as the Energy sector was just starting … Continued
Occasionally it helps to take a step back and look at the annual SP 500 earnings data: 2017: $134.26 – (est) 14% SP 500 earnings growth expected next year 2016: $117.94 – est. Another year of 0% – 1% growth … Continued
With about 60% of the SP 500 having reported Q4 ’15 financial results, SP 500 earnings growth “ex-Energy” is +2.10%, with revenue growth just barely positive at +0.90%. Here is the working spreadsheet, data courtesy of David Aurelio of ThomsonReuters … Continued
Here is our update on the SP 500’s “market cap vs earnings weight” of the 10 SP 500 sectors: FC – marketcapvsearningswt The story the data is telling hasn’t changed in a while and remains the primary reason I remain … Continued
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2015/11/sp-500-dangerous-for-bull-case-if-prices-turn-weak-here Thanks to Ryan Detrick, a technical analyst I’ve followed for many years, I’ve also started following Chris Kimble’s work. Chris is a technician that that started Kimble Charting, and looks to be giving great perspective on charts for many … Continued
Each year around this time, halfway through the calendar 4th quarter, a stab is taken at trying to calibrate next year’s SP 500 earnings growth. It is an exercise in attempting to bottle fog, since estimates change every day, particularly … Continued
In the Weekly Earnings Update found on this blog every week, most of the data is taken from Thomson Reuters, “This Week in Earnings” (TWIE). Greg Harrison seems to be the primary author, and is very responsive to inquiries abut … Continued