When Nike (NKE) reports their q4 ‘216 after the closing bell on Tuesday, June 30th, 2026, analyst consensus is looking for the following numbers:
- Revenue: $10.85 billion for a y-o-y drop of -2%
- Operating inc: $253 million for a y-o-y decline of -21%
- EPS: $0.13 per share for a y-o-y drop of -7%
- Of the last 9 quarters, revenue growth has declined y-o-y in 6 of those quarters.
- Of the last 8 quarters, operating income has declined in 7 of those quarters y-o-y by at least 20%, with one quarter printing a 19% drop.
- EPS has been negative in terms of y-o-y growth in the last 8 quarters.
It’s been a grim stretch the last 2.5 years, operationally speaking, with the stock beginning its decline in late 2021 from the $180 level to today’s $40’ish price point. The post-Covid period has not been kind to what was (or is) one of the top 3 global brands along with Apple (AAPL) and Coca-Cola (KO).
Nike EPS revisions:
Estimates sourced from LSEG
Astute readers will note that the downward pressure on Nike’s forward EPS estimates continues.
Nike revenue revisions:
Nike revenue revisions have also yet to stabilize, and the downward pressure, albeit a little less severe continues. For a world-class consumer brand, the first place any turnaround will shop up will likely be in revenue.
Valuation much more reasonable:
It’s a little surprising not hearing traditional value or GARP (growth-at-a-reasonable) price investors haven’t been more vocal with acquiring Nike since the stock is expecting 22% and 29% EPS growth in fiscal ’27 (started June 1 ’26) and fiscal ’28, with the stock currently trading at a 22x multiple for fiscal ’27.
I think the hesitancy may be that Nike EPS is expected to decline 30% in fiscal ’26 (the 4th quarter’s results will be out Tuesday night) thus analysts and value investors might be skeptical of the 22% EPS growth that are expected to ensue over the next four quarters in fiscal ’27.
Who has it right – the stock price or the analyst consensus ?
The other valuation metric that is much more interesting is that Nike on a trailing-twelve-month (TTM) revenue basis, is now approaching 1x price-to-sales, which hasn’t been since late 2008, early 2009.
Summary / conclusion: While the stock is more reasonably-valued today than at $180 per share (understandable after a $140 drop in price) in the fall of 2021, the fact is there is no growth anywhere to be seen in Nike’s last 10 quarters, and in particular no revenue growth, which is an absolutely necessary component for Nike to see some stock appreciation.
In the March ’26 quarter, this Nike blog post talked about Nike returning to mid-single-digit revenue growth (at least) and the negative revenue revisions show no indication of that.
Jefferies thinks fiscal ’27 could be the “stabilization phase” with North America showing the first signs of generating low single-digit growth.
China is still a major problem, but China grew y-o-y operating income or EBIT in the Feb ’26 quarter grew 74% vs, y-o-y revenue growth of 14%.
Soccer’s World Cup could help fiscal Q1 ’27, but I think the stock trade post-earnings, will be all about guidance for fiscal ’27. The current consensus for fiscal ’27, per the LSEG data (and readers can see the estimates in the above spreadsheets, are looking for $46.48 billion in revenue (0% y-o-y revenue growth) generating EPS of $1.84 or 22% growth in the period from June 1 ’26 to May 31, ’27.
Nike needs revenue growth – that will begin the turnaround.
The positives around the stock today is that the bulls seem to have given up on the name, and Nike’s valuation is much more reasonable today than in late 2021.
The negative is that the continued downward pressure on forward EPS and revenue revisions, hasn’t stopped.
This blog is long one position bought in May, 2004. The rest of Nike was sold after the March ’26 earnings report.
None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. None of this information may be updated, and if updated, may not be done in a timely fashion.