Looking at the data in this weekend’s post on Q2 ’25 and Q3 ’25 SP 500 earnings, something caught my eye.
Lot’s of folks talk earnings, fewer talk SP 500 revenue and year-over-year (y-o-y) revenue growth. Here’s a quick look at the technology sector’s revenue growth over the last 14 quarters:
- Q2 ’25: +15.3% (as of July 31 ’25)
- Q1 ’25: +13.3%
- Q4 ’24: +12.1%
- Q3 ’24: +13.2%
- Q2 ’24: +11.0%
- Q1 ’24: +8.5%
- Q4 ’23: +7.8%
- Q3 ’23: +2.8%
- Q2 ’23: 0%
- Q1 ’23: -2.9%
- Q4 ’22: -2.4%
- Q3 ’22: +7.2%
- Q2 ’22: +7.3%
- Q1 ’22: +12.4%
Peak tech sector revenue growth during COVID and the zero interest rate policy run by the Fed was 22% in Q1 and Q2 ’22.
From Q1 ’15 to Q4 ’20, the “average” technology sector y-o-y growth rate was 5%.
Summary / conclusion: The time was taken to do this since – given this article last week – as y-o-y tech sector revenue growth starts to reach high teens, low 20% range, you’d have to think we’re starting to see “peak tech”.
Unfortunately, I do not have a spreadsheet with peak tech revenue and EPS from the late ’90’s.
Certainly AI is the primary driver of revenue growth since the lows in ’22. Nvidia’s earnings reports in late ’22 – early ’23 (as I recall) really lit the chatter around AI.
The question remains, “How long does the AI spend last ?”
Just thinking out loud.
None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Readers should gauge their own comfort with portfolio volatility and adjust accordingly. All of the above data is sourced from LSEG, previously Refinitiv, before that it was Thomson Financial and FirstCall.
Thanks for reading.