Source: LSEG data
This table has been posted a few times over the last 8 weeks, showing the progression of “expected” SP 500 EPS and revenue growth rates for Q2 ’25.
Q2 ’25 earnings started this week, and all the large-cap financials showed slid numbers: JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and even American Express (AXP) this morning.
Note the darkened horizontal line on the left side of the above table: it shows that the expected Q2 ’25 EPS and revenue growth rates actually bottomed around the Memorial Day weekend, rather than the week of every quarter as is the typical pattern.
Note how with Q1 ’25 expected EPS growth rates, the Q1 ’25 EPS growth rate bottomed on April 4th ’25 (first column of data), versus how with Q2 ’25, the aforementioned bottoming of the growth rates was a full month earlier, around the end of May ’25.
Does this matter ? This earnings growth rate pattern has been pretty steady for the last 15 – 20 years, so yes, the fact that the estimated growth rates bottomed a month earlier – in my opinion – shows a higher degree of confidence in the 2nd quarter ’25 EPS and revenue estimates.
While only 59 companies have reported Q2 ’25 results so far, (23 of the 59 companies reported are financial sector companies), the upside surprise is +7.2% and the biggest upside surprise – per sector – is financials at +10%. The revenue upside surprise for far in Q2 ’25 is +1.95%, also above average, but that figure will likely decline over the quarter.
The largest market cap weight within the financial sector in the SP 500 is Berkshire Hathaway, which is up just 4.44% as of Thursday night, July 17th’s market close. The 2nd largest financial name in the SP 500 by market cap weight is JP Morgan, and it was up 22.6% as of Thursday night’s market close.
Summary / conclusion: The early results for Q2 ’25 SP 500 earnings look solid. Expect another decent quarter, although with the new August 1 deadline for tariffs, maybe the anxiety and angst now shift to the 3rd quarter of ’25.
Or maybe tariffs shouldn’t have been a concern to begin with.
What’s shocking about the Q1 ’25 market drama, is that the expected growth rate for the Q1 ’25 SP 500 EPS growth rate bottomed at +7.8% in early April ’25, while the actual quarter end growth rate peaked at +13.7%, or a 75% increase.
Let’s see if Q2 ’25 estimates growth rates can beat Q1 ’25’s numbers.
None of this is advice or a recommendation but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Thanks for reading.