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Category: High-Yield Credit

While Economic Fundamentals Have Begun to Change, Technicals Have Not / Energy Update

November 20, 2022 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

This chart of the daily SP 500 over the last 12 months tells us nothing has changed and nothing will…

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Posted in: 2008 Financial Crisis, Energy ETF's (XLE, Energy sector, High-Yield Credit, HYG

The Usual SP 500 Earnings Update: SP 500 EPS Returning to Pre-Covid patterns

August 21, 2022 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The 60% / 40% balanced portfolio slid 105 basis points this week to a YTD return of -10.10%, improved from…

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Posted in: High-Yield Credit, HYG, Weekly Earnings Update

SP 500 Earnings Update: SP 500 Forward EPS Diverging from Bullish Technicals

August 12, 2022 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The forward 4-quarter estimate (FFQE) continues to decline as of the week ending August 12, ’22. Not what you’d expect…

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Posted in: High-Yield Credit, Weekly Earnings Update, WMT

Credit Spread Improvement and a Quick Update on SP 500 Earnings

July 20, 2022 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Bespoke, with their always-relevant research, put out (in my opinion) a very timely update on the improvement in high yield…

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Posted in: High-Yield Credit, HYG, PIMCO

Talking Bond and Credit Markets After Jackson Hole

August 30, 2021 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The above graph from the St. Louis Fed’s database shows the option-adjusted-spread (OAS) on the investment-grade or high-grade corporate bond…

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Posted in: Corporate High Yield, Credit markets, High-Yield Credit, Municipal Bond market, Municipal High Yield

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Fundamentalis

  • Style-Box Update: Small-Cap Value Outperforming Small-Cap Growth – Hasn’t Happened since 2022
  • A Quick Look at Q4 ’25 EPS and Revenue for SP 500: Tech Sector EPS Grew 30.9% in Q3 ’25
  • Expecting Modest, but Still Likely Positive Return, for the SP 500 in 2026
  • Gold Breaks a 40-year Correlation. Does This Signal a Problem for SP 500 Forward Returns ?
  • The 2025 Estimated SP 500 EPS Growth Rate has Improved from +9% in July, ’25 to +14% on Dec 12 ’25

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