So much will be written this weekend about the FOMC meeting Wednesday, but here is the snapshot of the CME fed funds future contract probabilities as of Friday, July 26th, 2019. Sure looks like we get a 25 bp … Continued
May seem like a small data point but this week showed the first sequential improvement in the “4-week” rate of change in the SP 500 2019 and 2020 EPS estimate since – guess when – September 21 ’18. At … Continued
First, for the first time in a while, the number of “positive revisions” to SP 500 estimates outnumber “negative revisions: Here’s the data and the graph: The above is a spreadsheet kept weekly on the number of positive and … Continued
With 497 of the SP 500 having reported their Q4 ’18 earnings, attention has been focused on Q1 ’19 and full-year 2019 SP 500 earnings for a few weeks, and really since Wal-Mart reported since, the majority of companies have … Continued
When this blog post was written about a month ago, the SP 500 EPS estimate revision data was exhibiting the kind of negative revisions that have been previously seen in first quarters since I began tracking the data in the … Continued
The above table is SP 500 estimate revisions that are tracked every week from the I/B/E/S by Refinitiv report “This Week in Earnings”, published every Friday. What is really interesting in the revision pattern is that every Q1 of every … Continued
Using IBES by Refinitiv data, the weekly changes in bottom-up earnings estimates for companies within the SP 500 are monitored for estimate changes. The spreadsheet tracks the IBES data by week so that it can be monitored for changes in … Continued
The attached spreadsheet shows the trend in “upward” vs. “downward” revisions for the SP 500, with highlighted boxes being the key weeks of earnings season when the majority of SP 500 earnings report. Note the ratio of upward vs … Continued