OPEC meeting, Saudi Aramco and the State of Commodities

Because of the diminished long-terms returns-on-invested-capital and the inability for many commodity companies to build what Mr. Buffett and Morningstar call the “sustainable moat”, clients have never owned substantial positions in commodity companies for longer periods of time. Yes, Alcoa … Continued

Energy Sector: Overbought, but it May Not Matter

Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer’s Investment Research published this piece on Sunday, April 15th. (See below the dotted line.) So far the bulls have carried the week, though. ———————————————————- “And while we’re on the topic of XLE extremes, we would be … Continued

A longer Look at SP 500 Earnings

2019 est: +10% 2018 est: +12% 2017 est: +11% 2016: +1% 2015: -1% 2014: +8% 2013: +6% 2012 +6% 2011:+15% 2010 +40% This blog may be out with a few sector updates over the weekend (or maybe not) but tonight’s … Continued

Another perspective on SP 500 earnings

Year S&P 500 Ex-Energy Energy % 2014 118.78 113.77 4.2% 2015 117.46 104.89 10.7% 2016 118.32 117.36 0.8% Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S   The current estimate for 2017 as of this weekend is $131.07, which is 11% expected SP 500 … Continued

Energy Overweight is Not Working

The API data last night, and the EIA data this morning both showed a build in crude inventories which sent crude oil down 4% – 5% today (despite the shortfall in gasoline inventory) and also sent the XLE, IYE and … Continued