While the Industrial-related SP 500 sectors are showing signs of a better 2020 (and this could change by early 2020), the overall SP 500 EPS trends remain little changed as we head into Q4’19.
(This SP 500 earnings update is being published later than usual, thanks to attending the WealthStack conference in Scottsdale, Arizona, this past weekend and through yesterday. Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management co-sponsored the event (with InsideETF’s) and like a lot of Ritholtz Wealth Management does, the conference was very well done in terms of content and venue and will likely only improve with time. )
- Fwd 4-qtr est: $171.55 vs last week’s $171.68
- TTM est: $164.44 vs $164.39 last week
- FWD PE: 17.4x
- TTM PE: 18.1x
- PEG (fwd): 12x
- PEG TTM: 4x
- SP 500 earnings yld: 5.76% vs last week’s 5.87%
- Year-over-year growth fwd est: +1.45% vs +1.51%
- Year-over-year growth TTM est: +4.32% vs last week’s +4.43%
Summary/ Conclusion: Even though the bottom up estimates for the SP 500 are still looking for 2020 SP 500 EPS growth of 11%. the “forward 4-quarter” EPS est” for the SP 500 is only growing just a little over 1% versus the forward estimate from 52 weeks prior, hence, there is little reason for the SP 500 PE to expand.
The year-over-year growth of the trailing-12 month EPS estimate is a little higher at 4%, and that includes the current 2nd quarter earnings results each week, which will finish in two weeks.
Keep your eye on that 2020 SP EPS growth number: when this pattern that has been in evidence of “expected growth” stability of 11% – 12%, it usually portends good things for the stock market.
Thanks for reading.