By the numbers:
The forward 4-quarter estimate per Thomson Reuters this week was $122.12, versus last week’s $122.09.
P.E ratio: 17(x)
PEG ratio: (-21) but still distorted by the forward growth rate. Ex-Energy and Apple, the SP 500’s PEG ratio is probably a little under 2(x).
SP 500 earnings yield: 5.84%
Y/Y growth rate of forward estimate: -0.69%
Analysis/conclusion: The forward 4-quarter estimate is comprised of the 4 quarters from Q2 ’15, through Q1 ’16. Going out on a limb here, and noting that even though there has been five consecutive weeks of a negative year-over-year (y/y) growth rate for the forward estimate, my opinion is that forward earnings are bottoming and readers should see a rising growth rate in the forward estimate in the next few weeks and months. Part of that is crude oil peaked from June ’14 through September ’14 last year, and part is that we should start to see forming economic data. I’ve been surprised how strong new home sales and auto sales have been the last few months.
We are in a quiet period so to speak with 499 of the SP 500 having reported Q1 ’15 earnings and only those companies with May ’15 quarter ends report over the next few weeks.
Just for display purposes, here is the last week’s “forward 4-quarter” dollar estimate for the SP 500, and the y/y growth rate:
6/5/15: $122.12, -0.69%
5/29/15: $122.09, -0.79%
5/22/15: $122.09, -0.84%
5/15/15: $122.05, -0.74%
5/8/15: $122.17, -0.68%
Just an opinion, but the with the drubbing Energy has taken, and entering favorable comp’s over the rest of the year, look for both to gradually move higher.