Finally got motivated and put this spreadsheet together on recent sector revenue trends within the SP 500:
The Thomson Reuters data can help investors identify – from a top-down perspective – which sectors they may want to be overweight.
Our best call the last two years, was turning bullish on financials in the 3rd – 4th quarter in 2012, and then turning more cautious in late 2013, early 2014.
Financials have had a tough 2014 so far. The lack of liquidity and slow action in the bond markets has hurt the traditional banking / trading firms in q2 ’14 and the HFT issue hit the exchanges, not to mention the low VIX and low volume. I thought the exchanges would be a place to hide within Financials this year.
Technology has been a pleasant surprise in ’14. Apple and Intel sure helped. (long AAPL, INTC).
Here was a blog post from earlier in 2014 on revenue growth, and then an update from last week here.
Today’s blog update provides even further detail, and we will keep the sector info updated for readers.
The Fed may not really get anxious until we see a return to high-single-digit revenue growth in the SP 500.
The fact is SP 500 revenue and earnings remain pretty subdued, and we are seeing just modest p.e expansion in the index itself.
Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:
Brian Gilmartin, CFA
Portfolio manager