Navy Admiral William McRaven, gives the commencement address at University of Texas, Austin. You must read it or listen to it here.
It sounds passe’ or droll these days to honor the military, and it has become oh so fashionable. I feel for the Korean War and Vietnam War vets: they never saw the reception that WW II and the 1990 Desert Storm vet’s saw. There was nothing positive about what the Vietnam Vets went through when they came back in the early 1970’s. It is the ultimate sacrifice. I’ve watched it twice already, but I cant wait to sit down in front of “Lone Survivor” Sunday night, and honor Operation Red Wings, Mike Murphy and Marcus Luttrell.
Happy Memorial Day to all those currently serving, or who have served.
Great article by Jeff Carter on the meaning of Memorial Day.
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Norm Conley of JAG Capital out of St. Louis: complete agreement with him on this chart when he says he now thinks it will be harder for the US Treasury 10-year yield to rise, given relative global yields. I think it will take much stronger global growth and a real burst of inflation to push that 10-year Treasury yield above 3.03%. After universal bearishness around the 10-year Treasury with the yield at 3.03% on 12/31/13, there is now almost universal bullishness around Treasury prices with the yield at 2.53% and testing 2.47%. We are watching eth 2.47% area – that level is critical.
Ryan Detrick on staying defensive in terms of portfolio positioning. Be sure and follow Ryan at (@RyanDetrick) for great daily trading and investing insight’s across multiple timeframes.
Josh Brown, (@Reformed Broker) and some of his best work this week, like on the CAPE. (This is also a shameless plug for his book, which I cant wait to read.) I am part of an Advisor Group that meets every other Thursday via teleconferencing. Jeff Miller is also part of the group, and has had some insightful comments on Shiller’s CAPE. Jeff noted that very few firms actually allocate or manage money based on Shiller’s CAPE, although firms like Barclay’s and such may use it for sector selection.
Josh Brown with another home run article on the concept of Absolute Return. I belong to an Advisor Group that includes Jeff Miller and a couple of other guys who all write together on TheStreet.com, and one of our future topics will be, do you own or buy hedge funds if you think you are entering a period of sub-par returns, or just sit in cash ? My angle is that inverse ETF’s give me all the flexibility of a big hedge fund, and yet I can completely control the trade.
Here is Jeff Miller’s “Dash” from last week. Good discussion on the Treasury rally vs stock market performance. 2011 and 2012 were painful lessons. The last few years Treasury rallies mean lower stock market levels. Look at 2013 – perfect example.
Here is a great chart via Bob Brinker (@bobbrinker) and @Soberlook on an easy read on how the Fed can drain liquidity via their “experimental reverse repo program”. I didn’t know this was all that new or experimental. I interviewed with a Chicago bank’s repo desk in the late 1980’s and this all sounds very familiar. Maybe it is an experimental way to conduct Open Market Operations.
Tweet from Ukarlewitz on lowest volatility levels in stocks, bonds and currencies since 1988. Summer correction anyone ? The 2014 Summer Correction thesis would be found with Ryan Detrick and some others have been writing about the 2-year Presidential Cycle.
Mr. Buffett, Bill Miller, Howard Marks, they are all lauded as phenomenal investors: David Herro of Chicago’s Oakmark I consider to be one of the best. Here is a great article found on ValueWalk where David talks about a critical topic.
Thanks for reading tonight on this Memorail Day Weekend. Time for “Lone Survivor” on cable.
Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:
Brian Gilmartin, CFA
Portfolio manager