Nvidia fell 6% on Tuesday, January 7th, 2025, after Jensen Huang’s seemingly optimistic CES speech, which seemed to focus on coming products for the GPU giant.
Maybe the bigger worry is the 347 million shares traded on NVDA today, versus the 218 million average daily volume, for a 59% increase in volume, to the downside.
Here’s a quick look at the forward EPS and revenue estimates for NVDA as well as some math on the revisions:
NVDA EPS estimate revisions:
Source: LSEG
NVDA is scheduled to report their fiscal Q4 ’25 in February ’25. Per Briefing.com, NVDA will report their numbers on Feb ’26 ’25, for the year ended January ’25).
Let’s do some quick math – fiscal ’25:
- One year ago, NVDA was projected to earn $2.08 in fiscal ’25. Today that EPS estimate is $2.95 for a positive revision of 42% in the last 12 months;
- In Feb ’24, NVDA was expected to earn $2.44 in fiscal ’25, versus today’s estimate of $2.95 for a positive revision of 21% in the last 11 months;
- In May ’24, NVDA was expected to earn $2.70 in fiscal ’25 versus today’s estimate of $2.95 for a positive revision of 9% in the last 8 months;
- In August ’24, NVDA was expected to earn $2.82 in fiscal ’25, versus today’s estimate of $2.95 for a positive revision of 5% in the last 5 months;
- In November ’24, NVDA was expected to earn $2.95 versus today’s estimate of $2.95 for a flat estimate the last 2 months;
Fiscal ’26 EPS estimates
- For fiscal ’26, one year ago the EPS estimate was $2.3, while today, the fiscal ’26 estimate is $4.43, for a positive revision of 82%;
- In Feb ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $2.98, versus the fiscal ’26 estimate today of $4.43 for a positive revision of 49%;
- In May ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $3.57 versus the fiscal ’26 estimate today of $4.43 for a positive revision of 24%;
- In Aug ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate was $3.97 versus the fiscal ’26 estimate today of $4.43 for a positive revision of 12%;
- In Nov ’24, the fiscal ’26 estimate of $4.43 is flat the last two months with today’s estimate of $4.43;
(Readers can find all the EPS estimates referenced in the above s/sheet if you want to verify the math.)
NVDA revenue revisions:
- One year ago, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate $93.4 billion, versus the fiscal ’25 estimate today of $129.3 bl, for a 38% positive revision the last 12 months;
- In Feb ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate was $109.4 bl, versus today’s $129.3 bl for an 18% positive revision;
- In May ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate was $120.3 billion, versus the $129.3 bl estimate today, for a 7.5% positive revision;
- In August ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate was $124.8 bl, versus today’s $129.3 billion for a 4% positive revision;
- Since Nov ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate of $129.308 bl, is essentially flat with today’s $129.3 billion;
NVDA reports February, May, August and November every year.
For both EPS and revenue estimates, as we moved through fiscal ’25 (calendar ’24 essentially), the upside revisions to EPS and revenue estimates got progressively smaller.
Here’s another way to look at this using revenue estimates: since the February ’24 revenue estimate is after the latest quarter earnings release and thus all analyst estimate revisions are “in” the models, let’s track the revisions between January – February ’24, April – May ’24, July – August ’24, and then October – November ’24:
- Between the months of Jan – Feb ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate revision increased 17%;
- Between the months of April – May ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate revision increased 7.5%;
- Between the months of July – August ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate revision increased 3.4%;
- Between the months of October – November ’24, the fiscal ’25 revenue estimate increased 2.9%;
Readers can see how revenue revisions for fiscal ’25 became progressively less “robust” as calendar ’24 or fiscal ’25 progressed.
For a momentum stock like Nvidia, this matters, but the degree it matters, is subject to debate.
Summary / conclusion:
NVDA’s fiscal ’25 ends on January 31 ’25. Does the waning revision momentum have implications for fiscal ’26 ?
It all depends on guidance.
This blog has a very small position in NVDA and semi’s taken the last week of calendar ’24, just because technical support was being tested, and sentiment seemed to have turned negative.
It’s tough to hold any sizable position in the stock given the media frenzy around it, and how widely held it is.
Don’t construe this blog post as a bearish or bullish post. I’m just laying out the numbers. More can be done, and maybe after NVDA’s February ’25 earnings release, this will be updated.
None of this is is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing can and does involve the loss of principal, even for short periods of time. All estimates are sourced from LSEG and are current as of 1/7/25. The above information may or may not be updated and if updated, may not be done in a timely fashion.
Thanks for reading.