2018 Estimated SP 500 Earnings Growth Rises to 18%

Last week, this blog post was shown in order for readers to get a sense for how fast SP 500 earnings were accelerating.

With the Thomson Reuters data out this Friday, the 2018 “estimated” SP 500 earnings growth rate is now 17.7% (let’s say 18%) up from last week’s 16%.

What’s more, with the drop in the key benchmark this week, the P.E on the SP 500 of 17.8(x) is now exactly 1x the market’s expected growth rate this year.

On a P.E to growth basis (PEG), the SP 500 still looks reasonably valued.

Another stat that jumped out from the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S report is that 80% of the SP 500 companies that have reported Q4 ’17 financial results so far, have beaten consensus REVENUE estimates. Normally just 60% beat on the top line estimate.

That’s a big number, but retail is still to report through February ’18 so maybe that comes in a little.

The SP 500 earnings yield actually jumped from 5.35% last week to 5.62% this week.

What’s it all mean with the big market drop this week ?

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 2,40% on 12.31.17 to 2.85 as of the market close today, 2.2.18.

Remember in 1994, the SP 500 earnings grew 20% while the benchmark returned 1% that year on the back of 6 Greenspan-led fed funds rate hikes.

This correction was badly needed – stay focused on the long game of SP 500 earnings growth.

Here are expected SP 500 earnings growth rates for the next 3 years:

  • 2019: +10%
  • 2018: +17.8%
  • 2017: +12%

While a lot of bank write-offs happened post-2008, the last time we saw SP 500 earnings growth like this was 2004 – 2006 and some of that was driven by the Nasdaq recovery.

Will update how 2018 estimates have changed by sector this weekend.

Readers should find that interesting.

Thanks for reading.

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