3rd and 4th Quarter, ’16 Earnings and Revenue Expectations

Sector 16Q3 16Q4
Consumer Discretionary 4.1% 7.9%
Consumer Staples 4.2% 9.4%
Energy -66.6% 5.3%
Financials 1.0% 15.1%
Health Care 5.5% 8.3%
Industrials -1.2% 2.0%
Information Technology 4.5% 6.2%
Materials 7.1% 19.2%
Real Estate 1.3% 3.9%
Telecommunication Services -3.8% 2.1%
Utilities 2.2% 16.7%
TOTAL -0.5% 8.4%

 

Source: Thomson Reuters as of 10/8/16 – year-over-year sector earnings growth expectations

 

Sector 16Q3 16Q4
Consumer Discretionary 5.0% 5.8%
Consumer Staples 2.8% 4.9%
Energy -11.3% 8.3%
Financials 3.2% 2.7%
Health Care 6.9% 5.8%
Industrials 2.5% 3.6%
Information Technology 4.4% 5.3%
Materials 0.0% 4.8%
Real Estate 7.2% 4.8%
Telecommunication Services 1.3% -0.4%
Utilities 5.4% 15.7%
TOTAL 2.6% 5.3%

 

Source: Thomson Reuters – year-over-year revenue growth expectations

Conclusion: the key will be the degree of revisions to Q4 ’16 earnings and revenue growth upon 3rd quarter reports, which start next week. Honeywell’s pre-announcement tonight might bode poorly for industrials. Both GE and Honeywell look to be on convergent paths.

Note how the Energy sector remains positive in terms of earnings and revenue growth for Q4 ’16. Q4 ’16 could be the best quarter for Energy results in the last 18 months.

 

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