SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Ex-Energy Sector, Q1 ’15 Earnings Growth at +5.1%

According to Thomson Reuters, “This Week in Earnings”, the forward 4-quarter estimate was $122.56, versus last week’s $123.49.

The p.e ratio on the forward estimate is 17(x).

The PEG ratio is 29.5(x), or Ex-Energy, just over 3(x) and still elevated.

The SP 500 earnings yield is 5.79%.

The y/y growth of the forward estimate is just barely positive at 0.59%, down slightly from last week’s +0.61%, neither confidence-inspiring, from an investing perspective.

This week’s TWIE was dated last night, April 23rd, which means it likely missed all the positive earnings news from Amazon, Google and Microsoft (long all these names).

Q1 ’15 earnings are almost exactly where it was thought they would be with 200 of the SP 500 having reported as of Friday, April 24th, 2015.

I expect the Ex-Energy 5.1% growth rate to drift higher over the next 2 – 3 weeks and possibly move up to 7%, depending on how Wal-Mart and retail reports. (Long WMT).

My own opinion is that Q1 ’15 will be another decent quarter of earnings, with a drag from Energy and Basic Materials.

Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary have the best Q1 ’15 earnings. Financials are strong too, with Bank of America distorting the sector.

Retail has sold off the last two weeks. I like that sector too from a risk-reward perspective.

More to come over the weekend.

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