According to the Chicago Merc’s fed funds futures contract there is a 98% chance that the new fed funds range will be 1.50% – 1.75% which would obviously be a 25 basis point reduction in the FOMC’s fed funds target. … Continued
Thanks to Jeff Miller (www.dashofinsight.com) for including this blog in his latest post. Jeff notes that the Friday, 11/1/19 nonfarm payroll report could see 75,000 less jobs thanks to the GM strike. Street consensus is expecting 80,000 to 100,000 “net … Continued
This weekly chart of Apple shows that – while the stock has had a nice bounce since the December ’18 lows, it remains well below its all-time-high from the 3rd quarter of 2018 near $230. Here is the trend in … Continued
Here is the historical and prospective SP 500 revenue growth per the latest IBES data: Q4 ’19: +6.4% (est) Q3 ’19: +5.0% (est) Q2 ’19: +4.6% (est) Q1 ’19: +5.0% (est) Q4 ’18: +5.1% (actual) Q3 ’18: +9.5% (actual) Q2 … Continued
Bank of America upgraded Apple this morning, sending the stock up $4 – $5 in the first good day for the US equity indices in a week. However, let’s take a look at the forward EPS and revenue revisions: First, … Continued
Here is an updated table on Apple’s 2019 and 2020 EPS and revenue estimates following their earnings report: Is Apple acting as a drag on the SP 500 earnings estimate ? * Fwd 4-qtr estimate: $169.13 vs $170.01 from last … Continued
Here is a quick summary of how client’s were positioned in 2018, and what worked and what didnt: Microsoft (MSFT) remains client’s largest position and has been since 2013. A core position was kept in the stock during the last … Continued
Bespoke published a chart on Bespoke last week noting that this is the 4th drawdown in the stock in the “iPhone era”. To highlight the last two longer pullbacks for readers: Sept, 2012: the stock peaked at $100.75 in … Continued
The Top 10 weights in the SP 500 which constitute roughly 22% of the SP 500 by market cap as of Friday, November 16th, 2016, and thus a substantial portion of the index. To try and get some reality … Continued
At 4% of the SP 500 market cap and 10% of the Nasdaq QQQ’s, not to mention the 20% EPS weight (per IBES by Refinitiv), Apple is not a small part of the US stock market. The fact is, Apple … Continued