In last weekend’s post on SP 500 earnings, we looked at the weekly rate of change in the SP 500 2019 EPS estimate.
Here is the same data looking at the year-over-year change in the 2019 SP 500 EPS estimate:
- 9/14/18: $178.85 +12.5% expected y/y growth
- 8/17/18: $178.58 +12.1% expected y/y growth
- 7/13/18: $177.16 +10.7% expected y/y growth
- 6/15/18: $176.94 +9.9% expected y/y growth
- 5/13/18: $176.61 +9.1% expected y/y growth
(Source: Thomson Reuters IBES earnings data, tracking the data is my own work)
To provide some color to the above, the 52-week change between the current SP 500 forward EPS estimate and the estimate from 52 weeks ago, continues to expect gradually faster growth.
Take this data with a small grain of salt though. We will get the first peek at 2019 SP 500 guidance from some companies with October earnings, but the majority of full-year 2019 earnings guidance will come in January – February of ’19.
Readers need to know that in 2019 the SP 500 will be lapping the reduction to a 20% corporate income tax rate, which we estimated here as accounting for roughly half of the 2018’s +20% EPS growth rate.
Right now, 2019 SP 500 earnings estimates are trending the right way, and the fact that there is little “exuberance” over this is indicative of the post-2008 world.
Market valuation will always be used by both market bulls and bears – keep the faith – my own opinion is that this post-2008 SP 500 and US stock market is very healthy.
Thanks for reading…