SP 500 Earnings Update: Check These Earnings Revisions to Reality Check 2018 Rally

Check the numbers this week:

  • Fwd 4-qtr estimate: $150.32 vs last week’s $147.94 (highly unusual to see this kind of sequential increase)
  • P.E ratio: 18.5x
  • PEG ratio: 1.40x
  • SP 500 earnings yield: 5.40%, vs last weeks 5.39% (despite 3% SP rally for 2018, the SP 500 earnings yield has actually increased the last two weeks)
  • Year-over-year growth of fwd estimate: +13.24% versus last week’s 11.46%

(Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, “This Week in Earnings” dated 1/12/17)

Note that despite the 1.55% increase this week in the SP 500, the SP 500 “earnings yield” actually increased.

Note too also the substantial jump in the “y/y growth of forward estimate” to 13.24%.

That is amazing – we see an almost 200 basis point sequential increase in the SP 500’s forward growth estimate.

Expected growth of 13% at a market trading at 18x earnings is a reasonably-valued stock market.

The jump in the forward estimate this week (first bullet point) is highly unusual: we typically only see that kind of sequential magnitude change in the forward estimate when we roll into the first week of the new quarter.

The forward estimate two weeks ago was $143, so we’ve seen a $7 increase in the forward estimate in just the last two weeks.

The y/y growth rate of 13% (expected) has to be the highest print since pre-2007.

Now, I’m understanding why Ralph Acompora had to sit down.

This is going to be a tough year for bonds, particularly Treasuries. The US economy’s “governor” is likely behind the curve (no pun intended) already.

More this weekend – thanks for reading.


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