The forward 4-quarter estimate as of Friday, May 1, 2015, is $122.23 down from last week’s $122.56
The p.e ratio on the forward estimate is still 17(x).
The PEG ratio remains quite elevated.
The earnings yield on the SP 500 is 5.80% up from last week’s 5.79%.
The year-over-year growth rate of the forward estimate fell to -0.51%, the second time the y/y growth rate has gone negative in the last 5 weeks.
Analysis/Conclusion: I’m getting a little more worried that the y/y growth of the forward estimate cannot start ticking up into the mid-single-digits, which is where it usually returns to when it sinks like it has, particularly when Energy reported this week, and the numbers for the intergrated giants like Exxon and Chevron were pretty decent.
The y/y growth of the forward estimate has been under 1% for the last 8 weeks, and negative twice during that time period.
This is likely the most prolonged earnings slump since SP 500 earnings started to recover smartly in mid-2009.
Ex-Energy’s -54,5% y/y growth rate for Q1 ’15 (and assuming Energy is roughly 10% earnings weight within the SP 500), SP 500 earnings have risen 7.5% in the first quarter.
The SP 500 reversed lower after briefly trading above the February 22nd high of 2,119 this week, and Apple could not sustain its breakout above $133, thus the market could be reflecting uncertainty over the expectations for SP 500 forward earnings growth, which is what the data is saying.
We could simply be caught in a grey area of earnings data, with 360 companies having reported through Friday, May 1.
I’ll be out Saturday or Sunday with a look at the SP 500 sectors. Q1 ’15 earnings – in my opinion – actually look pretty healthy. For some reason, it isn’t being extrapolated into future quarters.