Happy 6th birthday to bull market born on March 9th, 2009.
The goal in today’s post is to look at revenue growth by sector for the SP 500 and compare and contrast Thomson Reuters data with Factset data and see what we see.
First here is a chronological spreadsheet showing the last 9 quarters of SP 500 revenues: FCSP500revgro(qtrly)
Note the Utility upside in q4 ’14 and the difference in Financial sector revenue growth between Thomson and Factset.
Because Factset is the only firm that discloses it, here is what Factset is looking for in terms of full-year 2015 revenue growth for the SP 500:
(Ranked from fastest to slowest expected revenue growth by sector)
Technology: +6.6%, +7.2% (as of 12/31/14)
HlthCare: +6.5%, +6.2%
Cons Disc: +4.9%, +5.7%
Cons Spls: +3.5%, +4.7%
Telco: +3%, +3.1%
Financials: +2.8%, +4%
Industrials: +1.6%, +3.2%
SP 500: 0.3%, +2.8%
Utilities: -0.4%, +1.3%
Basic Mat: -1.5%, +3.4%
Energy: -26.5%, 10.4% was the expectation as of 12/31/14
Only Healthcare has been revised higher since January 1 ’15.
—————————
Full-year 2016 expected revenue growth for the SP 500:
(Ranked from fastest to slowest expected revenue growth by sector)
Energy: +8.7%, +5.1% (as of 12/31/14)
Basic Mat: +6.4%, +6.1%
Technology: +6.2%, +6.6%
Cons Disc: +6.0%, +6.2%
Hlth Care: +6%, +5.5%
Financials: +5.6%, +5.5%
SP 500: +5.6%, +5.3%
Cons Spls: +4.9% +5.1%
Industrials: +3.2%%, +3.8%
Utilities: +2.8%, +3.0%
Telco: 1.9%%, +1.4% was the expectation as of 12/31/14
Looks like 2016 is expecting a “worst-to-first” reversion next year.
But it is still too early. Worth tracking though.