Jeff Miller writes his weekly ‘Weighing the Week Ahead” (WTWA) column, for Seeking Alpha and his clients, which is always a must read. Jeff occasionally includes Fundmentalis.com in his weekly missive, but even if he didn’t, it is a must-read every week. I seriously think it is one of the most widely-read columns on Seeking Alpha every Sunday for good reason, www.seekingalpha.com’s Weekly Macro View and Economics blogs.
In our Weekly Earnings Update, it was noted that q3 ’14 SP 500 earnings actually look very strong, although Energy and Basic Materials will see significantly lower earnings growth in q4 ’14, and q4 ’14 earnings growth for the key benchmark is looking pretty robust too, despite both those sector’s impact on SP 500 earnings. The one interesting metric that jumped out at me after crunching the full-year 2014 numbers, is that despite the 30% drop in crude oil, the Energy sector is still not the sector with the lowest expected earnings growth rate for full-year 2014: that distinction belongs to Consumer Staples, but assumes that Energy estimates likely wont fall further in q4 ’14.
Josh Brown picks out his most popular or insightful thoughts from his The ReformedBroker (TRB) blog this week.
If there was one guy’s work that I would want to read on a desert island, despite all the talent on Wall Street, I think it would be Ryan Detrick’s stuff. The fact that Ry is a Xavier grad is just a bonus. Very intelligent guy, and very likable too. People love him. (Complete opposite of me. )
From Bob Brinker’s feed: good piece on no OPEC output cut on Thursday, and also from Brinker’s feed, a CNBC clip on Russia’s inability to cut their supply (read the article to see the link to Russia supply). Energy names could be volatile Friday, on light post-holiday volume. Some energy names like XOM and CVX are actually overbought. My own opinion is that crude gets to $60 before it bottoms, probably in the first half of 2015.
Treasuries look set to rally from here. Man, this is wearisome. I should just give up and buy the TLT.
@Ukarlewitz on Real Final Sales for 3rd quarter.
Another Fat Pitch (@ukarlewitz) article on low interest rates causing higher stock prices, NOT. I have this argument constantly with my Libertarian friends, supporters of Peter Schiff and all the gold bugs, who think hyperinflation is right around the corner. It just doesn’t stop… Wesbury wrote recently that the low interest rates have just caused bank’s excess reserves to increase.
From @FMInvesting or Fundamental Momentum blogger. This article has me worried since I am long the UUP, and have been for a few months. Would love a pullback to the $22 area.
Just finished Tim Geithner’s “Stress Test”. Pretty good. Fed President’s Fisher and Lacker don’t come across very well. The press today never pushes them on the fact, particularly Fisher (I think) that he wanted what Geithner called Old Testament style punishment for the banks as late as late 2007, early 2008. He is still a hard money guy today I believe, calling for higher rates. I never want to live through a market period like that again. I’m still dealing with it.
On my technical software, I have 518 charts. Can’t find one single equity position that is oversold amongst my major sectors and holdings. EVERYTHING is overbought. Even gold and silver have bounced a little.
So today I tweeted that with AAPL’s $700 billion market cap, and a $15 trillion US economy, AAPL’s market cap is now officially 4.67% of the US economy. Wow…
Happy Thanksgiving to all. I’ll be out with my first 2015 earnings pass probably on Thursday. The crushing in Energy and commodities has moved the numbers some.
Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:
Brian Gilmartin, CFA
Portfolio manager