Here is the change in q4 ’14’s expected earnings growth by sector since October 1 ’14. Most of this was on the spreadsheet from this weekend, but not all.
(First column is expected growth as of 10/31, 2nd column is expected growth as of 10/1)
Cons Disc: +10.1%, +13.9%
Cons Spls: +2.1%, +4.5%
Energy: -5.9%, +6.6% (whopping change of 1,259 bp drop)
Fincl’s: +8.7%, +10.4%
Hlth Care: +17.8%, +19.4%
Industrials: +11.3%, +12.4%
Basic Mat: +2.1%, +10% (In q3’14, Basic Mat will be +20%, so we are seeing a big drop in q4. The commodity pain continues)
Technology: +9.2%, +10.5%
Telco: +18.4%, +23.8%
Utilities: +8.1., +7.7%
SP 500: +8%, +11.2%
Only Utilities has seen an increase in expected growth for q4 ’14 since October 1. Two weeks ago we wrote that Technology was showing an improvement but that has evaporated. With the criminal probe at JP Morgan, announced tonight, Financials might get whacked again. Ex Energy, the 4th quarter would be looking pretty solid. A 1,250 basis point drop in a sector that is 12% of the SP 500’s market cap implies a 1.5% reduction in the SP 500, which means that the SP 500 expected growth would be closer to 9.5% versus today’s 8%.
Data Source: Thomson Reuters