- The “forward 4-quarter” estimate this week jumped to $199.34 from last week’s $192.56, which is an increase of $6.78 per share. Readers of this blog were given a sneak peek at the potential number last week. The forward estimate on 12.31.20 was $159 per share.
- The PE ratio on the forward estimate is now 23x
- The SP 500 earnings yield jumped to 4.64%, up from last week’s 4.50%, and 12.31.20’s 4.23%.
- The expected increase in SP 500 EPS in 2021 is now 37% versus last year’s actual decline of 14%, and the expectation of +23% EPS growth in 2021 on 12.31.20.
- The Q1 ’21 actual bottom-up SP 500 EPS was $49.13. I actually thought we’d see a number over $50 by June 30th, 2021.
- The Q2 ’21 estimated bottom-up EPS estimate is now $45.07, but i expect that to be over $50 by September 30, 2021.
Q2 ’21 SP 500 earnings results will be peak y/y growth rates:
The data source is IBES via Refinitiv, but this spreadsheet was a concoction to track forward quarter “expected growth rates” that are buried in the Refinitiv reports.
Look at the peaks in y/y growth for Q2 ’21 SP 500 revenue and EPS, with the expectation that as we move forward on the calendar, the growth rates slow as pandemic-lockdown is fully lapped towards the end of 2020.
The far right columns reflect expected growth rates for 2022 for SP 500 revenue and EPS, which revisions will grow in importance after mid-August and September of 2021.
The “expected” revenue and EPS growth rates for the SP 500 for forward quarters continue to see higher revisions. Understandably, the analysts and the Street in general are a little more cautious about the back half of 2022.
SP 500 forward SP 500 earnings curve:
Part and parcel to expected forward growth rates, here is the SP 500 “forward” EPS curve, if we plotted EPS estimates each quarter by dropping off the last quarter and adding the next quarter. Basically this is a “rolling” forward 4-quarter estimate.
Here’s how 2021 full-year sector growth rates look today:
Source data is IBES data by Refinitiv.
Remember these are “expected” growth rates for full-year 2021.
The financial sector is highlighted (not for any particular reason) – that’s a leftover from a post a few weeks ago – but financials remain one of clients largest sector overweight’s – between 10% and 20% – for any number of reasons, not the least of which will be the higher dividends and more share repurchases as loan loss reserves are reversed the next few quarters and more capital is returned to shareholders.
Financials expected revenue growth for Q2 ’21 is -5.5%, while EPS growth for the sector is expected at +100% y/y growth.
SP 500 kickoff the week of July 12th, 2021 when the financials start to their Q2 ’21 financial results.
Style-box Update:
Here’s is the style-box update published every 6 weeks on this blog, which gives readers some idea of how value vs growth and large-cap vs small-cap is performing and maybe more importantly, how the styles and asset-classes are changing.
Note the improvement in growth – particularly large-cap growth – vs value since May 15th.
Because of the “correlation is not always causality” dictum, large-cap growth performance improved the last 6 weeks of the quarter, possibly due to the benign action in interest rates. From roughly May 15th to June 30th, the 10-year Treasury yield improved from 1.64% to 1.43%, and the inflation worries seemed to have come off the table as hot CPI data never resulted in a sell-off or decline in the Treasury complex. The Treasury market is really telling us there is little worry over inflation.
This coming week, blog posts on how Tech estimates are holding up and how Q2 ’21 SP 500 EPS and revenue growth expectations look prior to actual results starting July 12th, 2021.
Summary / conclusion: Readers should know – as of late June, early July – the longer-term pattern pf week-to-week higher revisions for expected growth for SP 500 EPS and revenue, still has not changed, i.e. week-to-week we continue to see higher revisions, which is always a positive.
What’s surprised me too during the last few weeks when revisions typically slow and actually usually show weakness week-to-week, the upward revisions have continued.
Q2 ’21 SP 500 EPS and revenue growth could be monstrous, with 65% y/y EPS growth expected, and then the surprise factor for Q1 ’21 SP 500 coming at 22.3%. If the “surprise” factor Q2 ’21 EPS is anywhere near Q1’s 22.3%, the y/y growth for Q2 ’21 SP 500 EPS could come in around 90% y/y.
But here’s the key: don’t watch the results, watch the stock price reaction to the results. Your first tell for a badly-needed correction will be stocks selling off in the face of very strong earnings results.
Take everything you read with substantial skepticism, and a healthy grain of salt. Gauge your investment strategy based on your financial profile and your own ability to be comfortable with volatility.
Thanks for reading. More to come this week.