A look at 4th Quarter ’17 Earnings Expectations w Cash Repatriation updated spreadsheet

Q4 ’17 revenue expectations: 

  • Energy: +17%
  • Technology: +10%
  • Basic Mat: +9.7%
  • Utilities: +7.6%
  • Industrials: +7.2%
  • Real Estate: +6.4%
  • Cons Disc: +5%
  • Health Care: +4.7%
  • Cons Spls: +4.2%
  • Financials: +2.5%
  • telco: +1.9%
  • SP 500: +6,5%

Q4 ’17 earnings expectations: 

  • Energy: +123%
  • Basic Mat: +25%
  • Technology: +14.3%
  • Financials: +14.1%
  • Utilities: +9.3%
  • Cons Staples: +8.5%
  • Cons Disc: +5.7%
  • Hlth Care: +4.6%
  • Industrials: +4.0%
  • Real estate: -1%
  • telecom: -2.1%
  • SP 500: +11.5%

“Ex-Energy”, Thomson Reuters is looking for 5.6% revenue growth and 9.3% earnings growth

Source: Thomson Reuters Earnings Scorecard 11/28/17

All this could change with tax reform and share repurchases, especially earnings growth from buybacks driven by share repurchases.

Here is an updated “tax reform cash repatriation” spreadsheet updated with Cisco and Qualcomm:

Cisco could potentially repurchase 1/3rd of its outstanding share base with cash held abroad.

Conclusion: SP 500 revenue growth the last 6 quarters has averaged between 4% – 6%, so the “expected” revenue growth for Q4 ’17 as of right now is inline or average with recent trends. The real wild card w SP 500 earnings is tax reform and cash repatriation and IF SP 500 companies choose to bring cash back in 2017 or 2018.

My guess is Q4 ’17 revenue will be around 5% and SP 500 Q4 ’17 earnings growth will be over 10%.

Nothing out of the ordinary.

 

 

 

 

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