So far anyway, although there is another 4 weeks until Q2 ’20 earnings start, here is how 2019 – 2021 SP 500 EPS look:
- 2021: $164.00 (current estimate for full-year 2021 SP 500 EPS)
- 2020: $125.48 (current estimate)
- 2019: $162.93 – actual
I’ve written the last 6 weeks that i felt it was important that the SP 500 500 estimate for 2021 remain above 2019’s actual $162.93.
So far, that is the case.
Here is the “rate of change” for the forward SP 500 earnings curve:
What’s interesting about this week’s data is not only do the revisions continue to be “less negative” but both the 2020 and 2020 annual estimates saw a positive revision for the week.
Haven’t seen that in about 3 months.
Averaging the 2020 and 2021 SP 500 full-year EPS estimates, the 4% average growth rate has been constant now for 14 straight weeks.
The 23x multiple for 2020 doesn’t look so great for the SP 500, but the 17x multiple for 2021 looks better.
Summary / conclusion: The revision data for the SP 500 continues to be a plus for the market, although it’s hard to comprehend the price action of +10% for the SP 500’s return in the last 3 weeks being all due to earnings. A lot of positives this week, with the Treasury yield curve action, the action in banks and airlines, etc.
More to come this weekend, probably on Sunday.
As always, thank you for reading.