OPEC meeting, Saudi Aramco and the State of Commodities

Because of the diminished long-terms returns-on-invested-capital and the inability for many commodity companies to build what Mr. Buffett and Morningstar call the “sustainable moat”, clients have never owned substantial positions in commodity companies for longer periods of time. Yes, Alcoa … Continued

Is SP 500 Earnings Growth Topping Out ?

Here is 6-year detail (both historical and prospective) of SP 500 earnings growth: 2020: +9% (est) 2019: +10% (est) 2018: +22% (est) 2017: +12% 2016: +1% 2015: -1% Source: Thomson Reuters IBES     The Excel table just above shows … Continued

Fed Rate Hike this Week – Here is the Conundrum

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2013/march/federal-reserve-interest-balances-reserves/ One article read this weekend – think it was from the CNBC app – noted that the surprise with this week’s FOMC announcement could be that that the Fed starts paying interest on member bank deposits ? I have … Continued

Apple’s Forward Estimates Updated

In the weekly SP 500 Earnings update this weekend, some thoughts were given on the Technology sector’s earnings, forward growth estimates, and the influence Apple has on the sector. Readers should quickly look at this blog post from a few … Continued

Tracking the SP 500 “Earnings Yield”

After the recent slippage in the forward estimate the last few weeks, a couple readers emailed and noted the decline and made some additional comments about the drop the forward estimate, which from a historical perspective, was almost immaterial. Readers … Continued

Emerging Markets – What Now ?

The Emerging Markets ended a 10-year bear market in Q1 ’16, as the EEM (iShares MSCI ETF) peaked in the $55 area in October, ’07, the VWO (Vanguard EM ETF) peaked near $58 in November ’07, where both bottomed in … Continued