SP 500 Earnings Update: Still Good

Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv

Starting out with the standard table showing 2021 SP 500 EPS and revenue revisions, we should probably expect a slowing in the growth rates maybe starting next week, since the unofficial earnings season comes to an end with Walmart’s report Wednesday morning.

However rather than guess let’s see what the data tells us.

So far the 2021 EPS and revenue revisions look fine.

The forward earnings curve: 

Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv

For a couple of reasons, ive let this table slide the last 5 – 6 weeks, but here is the latest, with an old quarter falling off and a new quarter being added on.

Note the substantial 4-week rate(s) of change when Financials and Tech stocks reported.

SP 500 data by the numbers:

  • The forward 4-quarter estimate rose to $190.12 this past week from $189.96 last week. What’s surprising about the data is that – typically – we get sequential declines in the “forward 4-quarter” estimate during the 12 weeks of a quarter but a sequential decline has only happened last December 25th and then again on March 26th of 2021.
  • The PE on the forward estimate is 22x
  • The SP 500 earnings yield is at 4.56% vs 4.49% last week, nearing the high of 4.61% from late January ’21.
  • 2021, 2022 and 2023 SP 500 full year EPS have continued to trek higher every week. Pretty unprecedented period.

Summary / conclusion: There is little change to the underlying SP 500 earnings strength. This week we got back to updating and posting the “forward 4-quarter” SP 500 earnings curve, and the revisions after Tech and Financials reported were pretty robust. (Check the 2nd spreadsheet.)

Let see what happens after retail earnings.

Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. Tracking SP 500 earnings data has it’s predictive flaws. Sometimes the market declines for reasons not earnings-related.

Thanks for reading.





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