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Month: December 2018

The Best Lecture of 2018

December 31, 2018 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Professor Joel Greenblatt of the famed Columbia Business School came through Chicago in early December, 2018, to speak to the…

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Posted in: Joel Greenblatt

Thoughts on 2019 – Investor Pessimism and the Potential for PE Expansion

December 29, 2018 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

Take any forecast or expected return discussion for 2019 with a substantial grain of salt. In 2017, this blog’s forecast…

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Posted in: Bond Market(s), SP 500 forecast(s)

Last SP 500 Earnings Update of 2018 – Street Consensus Estimates are Slow to Change

Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

https://lipperalpha.financial.thomsonreuters.com/2018/12/earnings-roundup-will-analysts-drop-2019-earnings-estimates/ The attached is a an article from Refinitiv’s (the old Thomson Reuters Financial’s) David Aurelio on Q4 ’18 SP…

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Posted in: Weekly Earnings Update

The Chart

December 26, 2018 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

  2011 was the last year the SP 500 has seen the 50-month moving average. Here was last night’s post…

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Posted in: Technical Analysis

SP 500 Has Now Corrected 20%, Slightly Worse than 2011’s Drawdown

December 25, 2018 Brian Gilmartin Leave a comment

The SP 500 has how corrected 20% peak-to-trough in less than 90 days, and is now roughly the same severity…

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Posted in: SP 500 corrections

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Fundamentalis

  • Yield Curve Steepened Last Week, While the US Equity Indices Became Very Overbought
  • SP 500 Earnings: 2026 Expected SP 500 EPS Hasn’t Wavered Much from Expected 14% Growth Rate
  • SP 500 Earnings: Continued Upward Pressure on Forward SP 500 Estimates
  • Bond / Fixed-Income Returns Having a Good Year (so far) in 2025
  • SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 EPS Growth for 2025 Has Risen from 8% to 10% since Late June

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