The full update will be sent out later this weekend, probably Sunday night or Monday morning since travel is required to see clients this weekend, but one aspect of the IBES by Refinitiv data that caught the eye today was … Continued
Client meetings since January 1 have kept the blog posts at a minimum. Two consistent questions from clients: 1.) How long can this last ? (i.e. SP 500 strength), and 2.) Is a recession coming ? In my own opinion, … Continued
In this weekend’s SP 500 earnings update, it was mentioned that first quarter’s of the year can see negative EPS estimate revisions. I thought readers should be shown some of the historical data tracked on “SP 500 EPS estimate revisions” … Continued
Financials start the Q4 ’19 earnings season this week, which is typical each quarter, as Financial’s start reporting and mostly finish reporting before the rest of the SP 500 does their quarterly duty. The other interesting (and mostly irrelevant) fact … Continued
When you finally realize you’re really, really, old: Moved out of Chicago in 2019, to the western suburbs, near where i went to high school. As a workout fanatic, joined the local UFC GYM for both brazilian jiu jitsu and … Continued
The new “forward 4-quarter” estimate as we roll into the new January ’20 quarter is $176.74 versus last week’s $171.15. This happens every quarter and now for the next twelve weeks the $176.74 will gradually erode into the last week … Continued
(Source: IBES by Refinitiv) This table was sent out to readers on December 1 (here) and once in November ’19 (here). On December 1, readers were told to keep an eye on Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate. It’s not negative … Continued
In prepping to write this weekly update, the SP 500’s “forward earnings yield” at 5.28% is as low as I’ve seen it post 2008. Yes, that’s a long time. The lowest I’ve seen it prior to this is the week … Continued
The “forward 4-quarter estimate” in terms of it’s 1-year change % or y/y growth, looks to have bottomed on November 1 ’19. This number has been declining since late September ’18, and peaked the week the SP 500 topped … Continued
The top 10 market cap weights in the SP 500 comprise 23.6% of the SP 500. According to Morningstar, here is the top 10 positions in the SPY by market cap as of 12/12/19: 1.) Apple: 4.47% 2.) Microsoft: … Continued