Is the Secular Bull Market Really Over ?
Is the secular bull market now over ? My own opinion is “more no than yes”, even as SP 500 2020 EPS estimates are likely to get hammered over the next 30 – 45 days. The answers to a question … Continued
Author Archives: Brian Gilmartin
Style-Box Update, Top 10 SP 500 Mkt Cap Weights and Staying Positive
Normally, the “Style Box Update” is done mid-quarter and then the last day of the quarter, but Tuesday might be busy. Growth is still hammering Value, and by a wide, wide, margin. No doubt Energy and now the Financial … Continued
SP 500 Earnings, Companies Hiring (Surprise!) and SP 500 Sectors as % of Market Cap
Amid all the doom and gloom, here are the companies that have announced that they will looking to add to their workforce in the coming months: Walmart: 150,000 workers to be hired Pepsi: 15,000 addi’l workers to be hired PapaJohn’s: … Continued
When Would it Be Reasonable to Expect A Stock Market Bottom ?
Clients are being told that the shock of this global pandemic (for the SP 500 and the US anyway) was analogous to a car traveling down a highway at 60 miles per hour, and then suddenly having the automatic transmission … Continued
Hard to Think Earnings Analysis Matters at All Now
The SP 500 “earnings yield” jumped to 7.49% this week, with the 15% decline in the SP 500. Trouble is, the current consensus probably cant be taken seriously. Coca-Cola came out Thursday night and said that their guidance in late … Continued
FedEx Reports Tuesday, March 17th. This SP 500 Correction More like 9/11 than 2008
FedEx reports Tuesday, March 17th, 2020 after the closing and my guess is the Irish Eyes won’t be smilin’ on Beale Street as the Transport giant continues to get kicked right in the teeth with “macro” developments and the Covid-19 … Continued
SP 500 Earnings Yield Jumps to 6.37%
Even with the late-day surge on Friday, the SP 500 ended the day with an SP 500 “earnings yield” of 6.37%, not nearly as attractive though as the yield from Thursday night, March 12th, which (using the forward 4-quarter estimate … Continued
Oracle Reports Tonight: Guidance (if Given) Will be Everything as Buybacks Support Share Price
Oracle (ORCL) reports their fiscal Q3 ’20 quarter tonight, March 12th, 2020, after the closing bell, and given the February, 2020 quarter end, and the global scope of Oracle’s business, that reaches into so many sectors and subs-sectors needless to … Continued
How 2020 SP 500 Sector Growth Estimates Have Changed
Trying to write an entire blog post without mentioning the “c-word” is tough these days but watching full-year “expected” SP 500 2020 sector growth rates is the one way (in my opinion) to gauge on a week-to-week basis how the … Continued
Quick Update on High Yield: Waiting for 7% – 7.5% Current Yields
HYG is testings it’s 200-week moving average, but is still above the upwardly-sloping trend-line off the Q1 ’16 lows. With the 50 bp’s fed funds rate reduction by the Fed, high-yield credit is always worth watching. With the Fed … Continued