Q2 ’19 “Upside Surprise” Data – Some Surprises

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This table was published Wednesday morning, July 24th, in an update sent out by Tajinder Dhillon of IBES by Refinitiv,

What’s interesting is that for the SP 500 as a whole, the “average” EPS upside surprise is 5.1%.

Looking at the sectors that have had a number of releases like Financials, the upside surprise is 4% – not bad.

Health Care has a 100% beat rate but just 25% of the sector had reported as of yesterday morning or Tuesday night. (I noticed Bristol Meyer Squibb (BMY) beat on both revenue and earnings this morning per Briefing.com.)

The revenue upside surprise 65% / 35% with less than a 1% upside surprise in aggregate, so the EPS data is coming in better than revenue (as a whole).

We’ll take a look at this further over the weekend.

Summary / conclusion: Less than 1/3rd of the SP 500 has reported results so far. Consumer Discretionary might take a hit with the results out of Ford (F) and Tesla (TSLA) (long a little of both) with Consumer Discretionary showing an 87% EPS beat rate before the latest numbers from Ford and Tesla.

Revenue growth is up 3.8% so far, year-over-year, better than the weakness seen in early 2016.

There are some issues around earnings which will be discussed this weekend, but the “upside surprise” factor looks within the historical ranges.

Thanks for reading.



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