StyleBox Update: It Could be Reasonable to Expect Large-Cap Growth to Lag for a While Longer

Click on the spreadsheet and you’ll find an updated “stylebox” analysis through 8/15/22.

Because performance is downloaded monthly, it’s preferred to update the spreadsheet every 6 weeks just to get a more frequent update on returns amongst large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap growth vs value factors (for lack of a better word).

Despite lagging value this year, the large-cap growth performance premium is still substantial if you look at “annualized” returns for 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years. It doesn’t mean it has to happen since the companies that populate the mega-cap portion of the SP 500 (top 8 to 10 companies in the Sp 500 by market cap weighting) are normally the greatest disruptors, but the performance premium has been so large for large-cap growth you’d think it would be a few more years before these numbers fall back into line.

That’s one opinion – take it all with great skepticism.

What looks somewhat appealing personally, is the mid-cap asset class both growth and value.

Finally at every client meeting this summer, reviewing 6-month and historical performance, a spreadsheet was shown to each client noting the last 3 years annual returns for the SP 500:

  • 2019: +31.75%
  • 2020: +18.37%
  • 2021: +28.75%

Annualized, that’s +26% return.

Thus being down -19.98% as of June 30 ’22 wasn’t that big of a deal.

Summary / conclusion: Looking at the data, it would be reasonable to expect the mega-cap asset class and large-cap growth to lag for the next 12 – 18 months. The underperformance of growth to value the first six months of 2022 has been notable.

As of last night’s close, “value” is close to breaking-even on the year, across the various market caps.

Financials have had a nice run in August ’22. Financials are a big value sector for the SP 500, as is/was energy although energy took on momentum aspects in the Q2 ’22.

Take it all with substantial skepticism. Do your own homework, but stylebox ETF’s are a way for investors to grab return without individual stock risk.

Thanks for reading.

 

 

 

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