{"id":9876,"date":"2020-02-15T16:44:45","date_gmt":"2020-02-15T16:44:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9876"},"modified":"2020-02-15T16:44:45","modified_gmt":"2020-02-15T16:44:45","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-sp-500-earnings-yield-back-down-to-5-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9876","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: SP 500 &#8220;Earnings Yield&#8221; Back Down to 5.20%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 earnings yield has retreated again down to close to 5% at 5.20%.<\/p>\n<p>This level is always worrisome.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9687\">Here<\/a> is the article from last December &#8217;19 on the low SP 500 earnings yield.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>SP 500 Earnings data (format revised):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est:<\/strong><\/em> $175.75 vs last week&#8217;s $175.98<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>1-year fwd est rate of change<\/strong><\/em>: 4.21% vs last weeks 4.26% and the peak print since Nov 1 of 4.46% two weeks ago.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PE ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 19.2x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>TTM est: <\/strong><\/em>$164.53 vs last week&#8217;s $164.30<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd est \/ TTM est: <\/strong><\/em>$175.75 \/ $164.53 = 6.82% vs last week&#8217;s 7.11%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Readers should comment on the new format and whether the data is helpful or not.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>Looking at <em><strong>2020\u00a0bottom-up quarterly estimates<\/strong><\/em> for SP 500:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9879\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9879\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=9879\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9879\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-9879\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500bottomupests21520-1-300x115.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500bottomupests21520-1-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500bottomupests21520-1.png 490w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9879\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to open<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Note the expected acceleration in Q3 and Q4 &#8217;20 bottom up estimates, both over $46 per share.<\/p>\n<p>Someone is looking for a stronger 2nd half to 2020. Note the dollar estimates of Q3 and Q4 of 2020 to the first half of 2020 and all of 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Note the upward revision to Q4 &#8217;20&#8217;s dollar estimate. I wonder if there is an indirect &#8220;election call&#8221; being made ?<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>An earnings yield drifting down towards 5% always makes me nervous. If a longer article was done on the SP 500 earnings yield post 2008, it would show that it has rarely been this low the last 10 &#8211; 12 years.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is up 10.36% YTD and the SP 500 is up 4.89% YTD. (Source: Bespoke).<\/p>\n<p>A much longer blog post today was written but it was somehow &#8220;flushed&#8221; when it was posted. Nothing like wasting 2.5 hours.<\/p>\n<p>More to come over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>My personal email is brianglm@trinityasset.com.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 earnings yield has retreated again down to close to 5% at 5.20%. This level is always worrisome.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[162,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-earnings-yield","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9876"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9883,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9876\/revisions\/9883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}