{"id":9464,"date":"2019-11-02T20:21:28","date_gmt":"2019-11-02T20:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9464"},"modified":"2019-11-02T20:21:28","modified_gmt":"2019-11-02T20:21:28","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-sp-500-still-expecting-high-4-low-5-revenue-growth-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9464","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: SP 500 Still Expecting High 4% – Low 5% Revenue Growth in 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

We heard very little about this week’s Ron Baron forecast, where he predicted<\/a> a 650,000 DJIA in 50 years. The math is simple as Baron detailed it: he assumed a 6.5% average annual return for the Dow 30 for a 17-year old at full retirement age or what i assumed is 67 years old, or 50 years from now.<\/p>\n

This isn’t that unusual from Roger Ibbotson’s forecast in 1973 – 1974 (probably after the 50% SP 500 bear market, the only one seen in the post WW II period before 2001 – 2002) when Roger proclaimed the Dow 30 would hit 10,000 by the year 2000. (Thank you, Jeff Miller.)<\/p>\n

It’s highly unlikely I’ll be around in 50 years, so enjoy your gigantic pot of money if you are 17 years old and plan to take action on Ron Baron’s prediction.<\/p>\n

SP 500 data (by the numbers):<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Last year, at this time, on Friday, November 2nd, 2018, per the IBES earnings data, the “forward 4-quarter SP 500 EPS estimate” (Q4 ’18 – Q3 ’19) was looking for $172.99, and 9% expected SP 500 earnings growth for the SP 500 while the bottom-up expected calendar 2019 estimate was $161.99.<\/p>\n

Today, the expected 2019 SP 500 bottom-up estimate is $162.80 (or $0.81 higher than 52 weeks ago) and the “forward 4-quarter estimate” (Q4 ’19 – Q3 ’20) is expecting or predicting $173.10.<\/p>\n

Here’s how the math falls out:<\/p>\n