{"id":9342,"date":"2019-09-28T16:09:53","date_gmt":"2019-09-28T16:09:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9342"},"modified":"2019-09-28T16:09:53","modified_gmt":"2019-09-28T16:09:53","slug":"sp-500-earnings-update-and-a-scary-chart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9342","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Update and a Scary Chart"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;forward 4-qtr estimate&#8221; next week (after the quarterly roll) will be $175.69, versus the $176.25 of <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9325\">two weeks ago<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As readers can see, even looking out further than the typical earnings metrics, there is a natural degradation to the SP 500 earnings data each week.<\/p>\n<p>This will be the last week of the Q3 &#8217;19 &#8211; Q2 &#8217;20 period, thus next week with the quarterly roll, we will be looking at Q4 &#8217;19 &#8211; Q3 &#8217;20 estimates.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 earnings data (by the numbers): compliments of IBES by Refinitiv<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Forward data<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est: <\/strong><\/em>$170.58 vs last week&#8217;s $171.14<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>FWD PE:<\/strong><\/em> 17.4x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>FWD PEG: <\/strong><\/em>15.7x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield: <\/strong><\/em>5.76% vs last week&#8217;s 5.72%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Y-y growth of fwd est: <\/strong><\/em>+1.10% vs 1.22% last week<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Trailing data<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>TTM 4-qtr est\/ actual:<\/strong><\/em> $153.31 vs $164.44<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>TTM PE: 18x<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>TTM PEG: 4.5x<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield: <\/strong><\/em>5.55% vs last week&#8217;s 5.50%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Y-Y growth of TTM est:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em> 3.82% vs last week&#8217;s 4.07%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>From Chris Kimble, an excellent technician who puts his technical analysis work up on Twitter and LinkedIn for all to see.<\/p>\n<p>This chart scares the crap out of me:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=9345\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9345\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-9345\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/kimbleSPY92719-300x167.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"167\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/kimbleSPY92719-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/kimbleSPY92719.png 650w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0 With just one trading day left in the 3rd quarter of 2019, the numbers (Q2 &#8217;19 earnings and revenue) ) are already baked into the market and we now await 3rd quarter, 2019, results due to start October 10th.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8217;s estimate&#8221; is barely showing an growth over the estimate 52 weeks prior (see last bullet point of &#8220;forward data&#8221;), which means Street analysts and strategists have really pulled in their growth expectations. Is it the China tariff headlines that are keeping the Street constrained ? Apple&#8217;s outsized influence on Technology (after the spinoff of Communication Services sector, Apple is now 20% of the weight of the Technology sector and the Tech sector is still the largest sector within the SP 500 at 20% of the market cap) thus Apple&#8217;s iPhone issues are keeping Tech expectations constrained.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed\/FOMC has now cut rates twice in the last 6 weeks and the SP 500 hasn&#8217;t really traded much above its 3,025 &#8211; 3,027 hghs from late July &#8217;19, with the point being that the SP 500 is now lower than when the Fed started cutting rates.<\/p>\n<p>Market breadth and the poor sentiment are allowing the bullish stance to be maintained, given the contrarian nature of sentiment. High yield credit still looks ok too.<\/p>\n<p>The impeachment inquiry is a new fly in the ointment. I was a kid in the 70&#8217;s and heard about Watergate every day. Ultimately i hope the inquiry doesn&#8217;t impact the US consumer.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading. More to come over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;forward 4-qtr estimate&#8221; next week (after the quarterly roll) will be $175.69, versus the $176.25 of two weeks ago.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fwd-4-qtr-growth-rate-sp-500","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9342"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9347,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9342\/revisions\/9347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}