{"id":9325,"date":"2019-09-20T21:44:18","date_gmt":"2019-09-20T21:44:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9325"},"modified":"2019-09-20T21:44:18","modified_gmt":"2019-09-20T21:44:18","slug":"previewing-the-october-1-bump-in-the-sp-500-eps-forward-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9325","title":{"rendered":"Previewing the October 1 Bump in the SP 500 EPS Forward Estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The forward 4-quarter estimate is the key metric for this blog&#8217;s work since it&#8217;s the Street&#8217;s best estimate of forward EPS for the SP 500, and that means the forward PE can be calculated, and the &#8220;expected&#8221; growth rate as well.<\/p>\n<p>Currently the Forward 4-quarter estimate for the SP 500 is $171.14, and that is the sum of the quarterly estimates for Q3 &#8217;19 &#8211; Q2 &#8217;20.<\/p>\n<p>When the quarterly roll takes place on October 1, &#8217;19, the new forward 4-quarter estimate will thus be Q4 &#8217;19 &#8211; Q3 &#8217;20, and that current estimated value is $176.25.<\/p>\n<p>On a calendar basis, which is probably easier for people to grasp:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>2020:<\/strong><\/em> $182.66 (est) y\/y growth expected at 11%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2019:<\/strong><\/em> $164.30 (est) y\/y growth expected at 1%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2018:<\/strong><\/em> $161.93 (actual) y\/y growth of 23%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0The forward 4-quarter growth rate for the forward estimate is now just 1.22%, that&#8217;s as low as 2016. Using the forward estimate versus the 4-quarter trailing estimate, the y\/y growth has fallen to 4%, which seems low, but on the Friday of the last full week of March or March 29th, the y\/y growth of the forward estimate vs the trailing 4-quarter estimate was 2.6%.<\/p>\n<p>For what was a difficult slowdown in corporate earnings through the first 6 months of 2019, the fact is Q2 &#8217;19 SP 500 earnings growth turned out to be inline with Q1 &#8217;19&#8217;s growth rate of 3%.<\/p>\n<p>Two consecutive quarters of 3% SP 500 earnings growth doesn&#8217;t sound like much. Q3 &#8217;19 will have the toughest comparison with 2018. We&#8217;ll talk about that over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of folks are skeptical of the 11% growth rate for SP 500 earnings next year. I do think a lot depends on the tariff outcome, but don&#8217;t discount it too much. That topic will be covered over the weekend as well.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forward 4-quarter estimate is the key metric for this blog&#8217;s work since it&#8217;s the Street&#8217;s best estimate of forward&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fwd-4-qtr-growth-rate-sp-500"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9325"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9325\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9327,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9325\/revisions\/9327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}