{"id":9282,"date":"2019-08-31T16:27:35","date_gmt":"2019-08-31T16:27:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9282"},"modified":"2019-08-31T16:27:35","modified_gmt":"2019-08-31T16:27:35","slug":"updating-the-industrial-recovery-expectation-for-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9282","title":{"rendered":"Updating the “Industrial Recovery” Expectation for 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this blog post<\/a> of August 3rd, 2019, readers were given a heads up on the “upward” revisions occurring to the Industrial-related sectors for 2020.<\/p>\n

Energy, Materials, Industrials and Communication Services were all sectors showing upward revisions to 2020 sector EPS growth estimates, which is typically more telling than downward revisions at this point.<\/p>\n

Here is what the expected growth rates look like as of Friday, August 30, 2019<\/strong><\/em>:<\/p>\n

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Click to open \/ enlarge \/ enhance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Since August 3rd, Energy has been revised higher, while Industrial’s and Basic Mat have been revised lower, but just by 1\/10th of 1%.<\/p>\n

Communications Services has been revised up almost a full percent since August 3rd too.<\/p>\n

This blog post from last Thursday, August 29th talked about the “easier compares” 2020 will have versus 2019. Here is a better way of showing the year-over-year growth rates:<\/p>\n

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Click to open \/ enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

SP 500 Earnings data (by the numbers):\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Click to open \/ enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Source: IBES by Refinitiv<\/p>\n

Summary \/ Conclusion:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0To save time every week, the math will be cut-and-pasted for readers. What isn’t shown is the Y\/Y growth rate of the forward estimate for SP 500 EPS, which is just 1.51% or if we look at “4-quarter trailing” vs. the “4-quarter forward” SP 500 estimate the growth rate is 4.43% versus the 4.49% of last week.<\/p>\n

Some companies will give Street analysts and investors some idea of what the coming year will\/might look like on October \/ November earnings calls, but this year undoubtedly the tariff question might results in some “constraint” on the first look at 2020 estimates.<\/p>\n

Why would management venture out with an opinion on 2020 yet, if it all changes with a tweet ?<\/p>\n

The point of today’s blog post is that the “expected” Industrial recovery has held up the last 4 weeks, with little in the way of downward revisions.<\/p>\n

That would be a major surprise if it happened AND from this we might conclude that maybe there will be a trade \/ tariff agreement in the next few months.<\/p>\n

There is more work to be done on this.<\/p>\n

More to come this weekend on other topics.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this blog post of August 3rd, 2019, readers were given a heads up on the “upward” revisions occurring to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2020-sp-500-earnings-data"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9282"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9288,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9282\/revisions\/9288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}