{"id":9011,"date":"2019-05-25T16:06:21","date_gmt":"2019-05-25T16:06:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9011"},"modified":"2019-05-25T16:06:21","modified_gmt":"2019-05-25T16:06:21","slug":"sp-500-earnings-sp-500-earnings-yield-back-above-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=9011","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings: SP 500 Earnings Yield Back above 6%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 earnings yield was 6.05% as of Friday&#8217;s close, and the 2nd week in a row where the key benchmark&#8217;s earnings yield was above 6%.<\/p>\n<p>There was a string of 22 consecutive weeks from October 5th, 2018 to Feb 22nd, 2019, where every week the SP 500 earnings yield was above 6% and even above 7% on December 21st, so don&#8217;t use the EY as a timing tool, but the metric does indicate that the SP 500 is relatively cheaper once again.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 Earnings data (by the numbers -Source: IBES by Refinitiv)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est:<\/strong><\/em> $171.60 vs last week&#8217;s $171.76<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PE ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 16.5x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 3.48x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> 6.07% vs last week&#8217;s 6.01%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Year-over-year growth of fwd estimate:<\/strong><\/em> 4.73% vs last week&#8217;s 4.85%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0To be frank with readers, the SP 500 Earnings yield was between 6% &#8211; 7% in 2007 and 2008, but the 2008 Financial Crisis was not an earnings recession, it was a &#8220;rotting from within&#8221; of our mortgage and housing financing, which is not an excuse to disregard the 2007 &#8211; 2008 data, but it&#8217;s a reality test for today.<\/p>\n<p>On the daily chart, the SP 500 is about 3\/4th&#8217;s of the way to &#8220;oversold&#8221; status, but the key benchmark remains above the 200-day moving average, unlike the decline in Q4 &#8217;18.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9015\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9015\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=9015\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9015\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-9015\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4weekchg52419-300x110.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4weekchg52419-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4weekchg52419.png 756w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9015\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Since this blog has spent the last few weeks talking about the &#8220;4-week change&#8221; in the 2019 and 2020, this last week the 4-week change turned back negative.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t like to see that.<\/p>\n<p>However, note the 2020 estimate &#8211; that is 12% expected growth next year. Readers will laugh, but don&#8217;t ignore that longer time horizon.<\/p>\n<p>Will be out with more posts over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 earnings yield was 6.05% as of Friday&#8217;s close, and the 2nd week in a row where the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[162],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-earnings-yield"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9011"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9011\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9018,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9011\/revisions\/9018"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}