{"id":8918,"date":"2019-04-27T17:08:11","date_gmt":"2019-04-27T17:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8918"},"modified":"2019-04-27T17:08:11","modified_gmt":"2019-04-27T17:08:11","slug":"how-have-full-year-2019-sp-500-earnings-estimates-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8918","title":{"rendered":"How Have Full-Year 2019 SP 500 Earnings Estimates Changed ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First, for the first time in a while, the number of &#8220;positive revisions&#8221; to SP 500 estimates outnumber &#8220;negative revisions: Here&#8217;s the data and the graph:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8919\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8919\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8919\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8919\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8919\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500epsestrevs42719-300x51.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"51\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500epsestrevs42719-300x51.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500epsestrevs42719-768x129.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500epsestrevs42719.png 950w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8919\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The above is a spreadsheet kept weekly on the number of positive and negative SP 500 EPS estimate revisions. What the reader wasn&#8217;t shown, but will be displayed in mid-May or so, is that this week&#8217;s &#8220;positive&#8221; revisions for the SP 500, was the first positive number above 50% since 11\/23\/18.<\/p>\n<p>The Street has been negative &#8211; for some time &#8211; on EPS estimates until this week.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s a good sign.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the graphical display of the same data, but the IBES graph data only goes back to early Feb &#8217;19:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8920\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8920\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8920\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8920\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8920\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500estrevgraph42719-300x205.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500estrevgraph42719-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500estrevgraph42719-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500estrevgraph42719.png 878w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8920\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>So, how have 2019 sector growth rates changed for the SP 500 ?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8922\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8922\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8922\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8922\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8922\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp5002019sectorgrorates42719-300x128.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"128\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp5002019sectorgrorates42719-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp5002019sectorgrorates42719-768x327.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp5002019sectorgrorates42719.png 794w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8922\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enlarge \/ enhance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Note how the overall SP 500 expected earnings growth rate for 2019 was revised slightly lower since April 1 &#8217;19, BUT several sectors have been revised higher, meaning that as of Friday, April 26, &#8217;19, the expected sector earnings growth is higher today than it was on April 1, &#8217;19.<\/p>\n<p>Which sectors are looking for better earnings growth for full-year 2019 today than on April 1, &#8217;19 ?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Energy<\/li>\n<li>Financials<\/li>\n<li>Health Care<\/li>\n<li>Real Estate<\/li>\n<li>Technology<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Which sectors are expected to show faster earnings growth than the SP 500 as a whole for 2019 ?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Financials at 9% expected growth for 2019;<\/li>\n<li>Health Care at 5.7% expected growth for 2019;<\/li>\n<li>Real Estate at 4% expected growth for 2019;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gary Morrow (@garysmorrow) one of my favorite technicians noted yesterday on Twitter that the BKX would likely close above it&#8217;s 200-day moving average since last September &#8217;18 and on Friday, April 26th, 2019 the BKX did close above that key average:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8924\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8924\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8924\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8924\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8924\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/bkx200day42619-300x197.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/bkx200day42619-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/bkx200day42619-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/bkx200day42619.png 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8924\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> SP 500 earnings data is getting more positive &#8211; the first week since late November &#8217;18 where positive revisions outnumbered negative revisions by a substantial margin &#8211; is a big positive. <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8913\">Last night&#8217;s<\/a> post about &#8220;upside surprises&#8221; left out the raw data, but readers get the point. Clients remain overweight Financials, with Schwab (SCHW) and JP Morgan (JPM) as the largest Financial holdings.<\/p>\n<p>Of all 11 SP 500 sectors, the Financial sector is expecting the strongest sector growth at 9% for full-year 2019.<\/p>\n<p>I still think that Q1 &#8217;19 earnings will show 3% &#8211; 4% growth against a very strong comp a year ago, by mid-May &#8217;19.<\/p>\n<p>Full-year 2019 SP 500 earnings growth should be closer to high-single-digits at least (by year end), but we&#8217;ll know more by the summer.<\/p>\n<p>Gary Morrow thinks Northern Trust (NTRS) will work here. Northern is a global custodian bank headquartered in Chicago.<\/p>\n<p>One client, who is a very long-term investor, has a cost basis in NTRS of $36 from May, 2003.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8926\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8926\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8926\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8926\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8926\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ntrs42619-300x255.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ntrs42619-300x255.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ntrs42619-768x653.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ntrs42619.png 876w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8926\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Thank for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First, for the first time in a while, the number of &#8220;positive revisions&#8221; to SP 500 estimates outnumber &#8220;negative revisions:&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[213,84,53,210,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2019-sp-500-earnings","category-financial-sector","category-financials","category-sp-500-estimate-revision-data","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8918"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8918\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8930,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8918\/revisions\/8930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}