{"id":8855,"date":"2019-04-09T21:52:32","date_gmt":"2019-04-09T21:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8855"},"modified":"2019-04-13T19:35:36","modified_gmt":"2019-04-13T19:35:36","slug":"is-pre-earnings-season-pessimism-a-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8855","title":{"rendered":"Is Pre-Earnings Season Pessimism a Good Thing?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As big fans of Bespoke’s research, the firm published their long-awaited earnings season preview today.<\/p>\n

Here is the first chart:<\/p>\n

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click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Here is the second chart:<\/p>\n

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Click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Although the sharp first quarter, 2019, rally in the SP 500 throws a fly in the ointment, the upshot of the sentiment analysis for readers is that the worse the sentiment headed into a reporting season, the better the “upside surprise” for the SP 500 earnings season, and usually the better the market response.<\/p>\n

My own opinion is that Q1 ’18 is a lot like Q1 ’16, when the SP 500 bottomed in late January, early February ’16, and SP 500 earnings fell 5% y\/y according to the IBES by Refinitiv data, which was the bottom of the cycle for that correction for SP 500 earnings growth.<\/p>\n

I suspect that Q1 ’18 and the current expectation of -2% to -3% SP 500 earnings growth year-over-year will be the bottom for this correction as well.<\/p>\n

To answer the headline question today, I’d say, “Yes”.<\/p>\n

We’ll see shortly.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As big fans of Bespoke’s research, the firm published their long-awaited earnings season preview today. Here is the first chart:…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-estimate-revisions"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8855"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8855\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8877,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8855\/revisions\/8877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}